HRC and Obama On Same Page Regarding GOP's Role In Creating Trump

I must admit that I am a bit disappointed in Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama right now, and it has to do with recent speeches these Democrats delivered and what they did not say in their speeches. I am referring to the speech Obama delivered during the Democratic Convention and the speech Hillary gave today on Donald Trump's relationship with the racist alt-conservative movement in this country.

Don't get me wrong -- both speeches were excellent -- but neither Hillary and Obama seemed interested in blaming the GOP for the Donald Debacle.  Last month, Obama stated during his Convention Speech that Trump is not a conservative nor do his ideas reflect those of the Republican Party.  Hillary did something similar today:

Hillary Clinton on Thursday delivered a blistering denunciation of Donald J. Trump, saying he had embraced the “alt-right” political philosophy and presenting his choice as an especially ominous turn in a presidential election full of them.

In her most direct critique yet connecting the Trump campaign to white nationalists and the conservative fringe, Mrs. Clinton is framing Mr. Trump’s run as unprecedented in modern politics. "He is taking hate groups mainstream and helping a radical fringe take over the Republican Party,” she said.

I guess I understand why Hillary and Obama feel compelled to discuss Trumpism and Republicanism as two separate things -- they are undoubtedly trying to attract moderate Republicans into the Democratic fold.  But Trumpism and Republicanism are obviously the same thing -- the GOP created Donald Trump -- and I worry that the failure of Democrats to repeatedly point this out could affect races down-ballot. 

This race is going to get a lot uglier in the coming weeks.  I just hope the Democrats generally -- and Obama and Hillary specifically -- pivot away from trying to court Republicans to the Democratic side and begin attacking the GOP for creating and then unleashing Donald Trump.

Quote of the Week

"What people don’t know is that Obama got tremendous numbers of people out of the country, Bush the same thing. Lots of people were brought out of the country with the existing laws. Well, I’m gonna do the same thing."

-- Donald Trump, apparently complimenting Barack Obama's record on deportation while simultaneously trying to soften his own position on illegal immigration.

What I particularly love about this quote is the "what people don't know" language.  The reason people don't know that Obama "got tremendous numbers of people out of the country" is that the GOP, including Trump, have been lying about Obama's record on immigration for many years now.

Trump has done this type of thing before.  For example, Donald has attacked the GOP mythology regarding George W. Bush and the 9-11 Attacks.  As far as most Republicans are concerned, George W. Bush wasn't even president on September 11, 2001. But last October, Trump set the record straight by stating "[w]hen you talk about George Bush, I mean, say what you want, the World Trade Center came down during his time."

But what makes Trump's admission about Obama's deportation successes more interesting is that Donald, in praising Obama's efforts along these lines, is directly undercutting the one thing that got him the GOP nomination in the first place, namely, his over-the-top positions on illegal Mexican immigrants and the need to deport every last one of them. I can't wait to see how Trump's white nationalist supporters will react to this change of heart.

Confession of the Week

From GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak:

The birther conspiracy that Trump launched in 2011 was a crucial moment for the conservative movement. We knew Obama wasn't born in Kenya. But for some conservatives, we liked seeing Obama being forced to answer Qs & provide documentation. Why not release birth certificate? The reality is Trump is clearly a racist. And this was the first sign.

Obama being born in Kenya would have required a massive cover-up. It was never plausible. But the media networks covered it breathlessly. Republicans had a chance to do the right thing and many passed. Many Republicans didn't want to offend their base, which despised Obama for taking the country far left. But the base was wrong. Questioning President Obama's citizenship was a racial attack. Does anyone doubt Tim Scott or Mia Love [were] born in the US? Of course not.

The birther episode showed us all we needed to know about Trump at that time. He should have been excommunicated. But he wasn't. He started headlining GOP events, appearing on Fox and Friends weekly, talking to reporters, traveling the country. He benefited. The conservative movement should have purged him then. He's never been a conservative. He's a carnival barker. He's not a patriot.

The birther episode concluded w/ the White House Correspondent's Dinner, which Trump attended. Trump was being celebrated in attendance. Instead of isolating Trump, Obama made him an everyday Republican, and sharply and mercilessly insulted him. Trump was seething. Had our movement already purged him he would have been all alone. But by then he'd made friends in the GOP and conservative media. I believe the feeling of embarrassment and rage that Trump felt that night at the WHCD dinner is what drove him to run for President.

The whole notion that Obama was taking the country "far left" is, of course, bullshit. But I guess it is good to see Republicans starting to finally figure out how the fuck Donald Trump became the GOP nominee for president.  Let's hope the members of whatever conservative political party ends up replacing the GOP will take this lesson to heart.

Is There Such A Thing As An "Inner" Inner Trump?

Greg Sargent makes this observation about how Donald Trump reportedly feels free to release his "Inner Trump" now that Paul Manafort is on his way out as the campaign's senior adviser and conspiracy nut Steven Bannon of Breitbart News has taken control:

What’s immediately striking about this is the campaign’s apparent idea that the “inner Trump” has somehow been contained since the end of the GOP primaries. The entire GOP convention represented a choreographed spectacle of inner Trumpism, from the angry chants of “lock her up” to Trump’s rage-and-hate acceptance speech, which relied on exaggerations, distortions, and lies to paint a dystopian portrait of America as seen through the very darkest lens Trumpism has to offer. Since then, the inner Trump has roared forth constantly, most prominently in his sustained battle with the Khan family. The idea that Trump had abandoned or toned down his basic themes and messages is daft. If anything, the big story of this race has been that he stuck to them, further alienating the very voter groups he needs in the general election.

All I can say is that if what we've been witnessing these past few weeks was not the real Inner Trump -- but only a "contained" version of Donald -- then the next few months will easily be the most interesting period ever in the history of U.S. presidential campaigns.  Trump better follow through with some pretty crazy shit or I'll be profoundly pissed off.

The Trump-Breitbart Coalition and The Rise of the TNP

Today's shake-up in the Trump Campaign, although potentially bad news for my prediction that Trump will drop out by Labor Day, is great news for so many other reasons that I don't even know where to begin.

It seems to me Trump has now accepted he is going to lose. His apparent plan is to eventually launch a nationalist political party, and he will team up with Breitbart News on this endeavor. Breitbart will handle propaganda for this new political party much like Fox News does for the GOP.  Roger Ailes being forced out at Fox makes this whole process easier for Trump, who is friendly with Ailes and has recently brought him into the campaign as an advisor. I wouldn't be surprised if Ailes goes to work for Breitbart after Donald loses in November. Where the hell else is he going to go?  Who else would want Ailes on board besides Breitbart?

The Republican Establishment must be stunned by the news that Breitbart's executive chairman is taking over Trump's campaign, given that one of the things Breitbart News specializes in is going after Establishment GOP types like Jeb Bush.  It is also way into conspiracy theory stuff.  Needless to say, the next few months are going to be epic.

What we will most likely see during the run-up to the General Election is Trump stirring up race hatred and nationalism to such an extent that it will make his previous efforts along these lines look trivial. The RNC will then be forced to pull out all support for Trump in an effort to save GOP candidates down-ballot. Indeed, there is already a big movement within the Republican Party to make this happen, and no doubt these efforts will intensify after what occurred this morning.

Trump will use this inevitable RNC withdrawal of support to declare all-out war on the Republican Establishment.  He will also continue his attacks on the Media. Ironically, this could mean that his attacks on Hillary will taper off as we get closer to the actual election -- he will still throw the kitchen sink at her during the debates (Ailes and this Breitbart guy Bannon will help him with all that), but I really do believe his main target with be the GOP itself, with the Media being his secondary target.  Of course, when he loses in November, Donald will blame everyone but himself.

Trump may still drop out of the campaign, but if he does, he'll do it -- not out of any frustration -- but in order to further hurt the GOP and thus make it easier to launch the TNP (Trump Nationalist Party). The TNP will attract a lot of Republicans who don't think the GOP is racist enough. I think that will end up being about 40% of the Republican Party. 

Let me explain that number:  Of course I think the GOP is more than 40% racist.  The number of racists in the GOP is probably closer to 65%, but I don't believe all the racists in the party will change affiliation to the TNP.  Most will, but some will remain Republican.

Anyway, fun times ahead.

Trump Campaign Gets Back Off Track

Two speeches in a row delivered via teleprompter.  Two! 

I must admit that last night, when I saw that Donald Trump was once again delivering a boring teleprompted speech -- his second one in two days -- I got nervous.  First of all, I was generally concerned that Trump might actually be trying to move on from the cluster-fuck of the last few weeks and into the realm of serious-minded campaigning.  Second, I was specifically concerned that we might have seen the end to Trump's unscripted rallies and thus the end to Donald saying stupid shit.

Well, I no longer have those concerns:

For the second time in less than two months, Donald Trump has shaken up his presidential campaign. The first was when he fired former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski back on June 20. And the second came late last night, when we learned that Breitbart News Executive Chairman Stephen Bannon is the campaign's new CEO, while pollster and current adviser Kellyanne Conway has been promoted to campaign manager. Current Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort will remain in his job, but his influence will diminish.

The Washington Post had this to say about the campaign shake-up: "Trump's turn away from Manafort is in part a reversion to how he ran his campaign in the primary with then-campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Lewandowski's mantra was 'let Trump be Trump' and Trump wants to get back to that type of campaign culture."

Let Trump be Trump -- I like the sound of that.

Perhaps Trump Is Not A Political Genius After All

Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele had a few things to say yesterday about the rise of Donald Trump:

“This is all part of the process,” [Steele] said. “This has to happen. This confrontation with ourselves.” That confrontation involves the GOP realizing that it has itself to blame for the destructive rise of Trump. “[I]n large measure, we laid down the metrics and pathway for Donald Trump to emerge and to arise the way he did,” Steele said. “He understood the GOP better than the GOP understood itself.” 

Until very recently, I also was of the opinion that Trump displayed intellectual prowess in recognizing that the stage had been set for a nationalist candidate like himself to easily seize control of the Republican Party. Sure, Trump has since pissed it all away by acting like a complete dick, but at least he was the only person in the GOP who correctly read the pulse of a Republican Party that was growing more radicalized by the day.

Indeed, over the last few weeks, I wondered how it was that Trump -- the political genius who recognized that the GOP base would gleefully embrace hate -- was a complete moron in other areas involving politics, such as the need for a ground game, the need to not say stupid shit, and the need to pivot into the General Election.  I thought that perhaps Trump was like the Dustin Hoffman character in Rain Man, who was really good at counting cards but was not an excellent driver.

Then I read Michael Moore's piece on Alternet today, and now I am starting to think that Trump won the nomination not because he is a political savant, but because he pulled a Homer Simpson and succeeded despite idiocy.  Moore, citing inside information, said that Trump decided to run for president merely to get a better deal with NBC and with absolutely no thought of winning the nomination:

With no campaign staff, no 50-state campaign infrastructure — neither of which he needed because, remember, this wasn’t going to be a real campaign — and with no prepared script, he went off the rails at his kick-off press conference, calling Mexicans "rapists" and "drug dealers" and pledging to build a wall to keep them all out. Jaws in the room were agape. His comments were so offensive, NBC, far from offering him a bigger paycheck, immediately fired him with this terse statement: "Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with Mr. Trump."

Trump was stunned. So much for the art of the deal. He never expected this, but he stuck to his plan anyway to increase his “value” in the eyes of the other networks by showing them how many millions of Americans wanted him to be their leader. He knew, of course (and the people he trusted also told him) that there was no way he was actually going to win many (if any) of the primaries, and he certainly would not become the Republican nominee, and NEVER would he EVER be the president of the United States.

The rest is history. But wouldn't it be hilarious if the death of the Republican Party was caused, not by a political mastermind who was great at reading the mood of the Electorate, but by a Reality TV Star who was simply trying to get a better deal?

Excellent Summation of the Current State of the Presidential Campaign

"The Upshot’s model gives Mrs. Clinton an 88 percent chance of winning. It’s about the same probability of hitting a field goal from the 20-yard line. That’s a pretty good way to think about it. If Mrs. Clinton ultimately wins, we will probably look back and say she had more or less already won it by this point. If she loses, these next two months will be talked about for decades."

-- Nate Cohn.

And here is another great quote:

"Under those eight years, before Obama came along, we didn't have any successful radical Islamic terrorist attack in the United States. They all started when Clinton and Obama got into office."

-- Rudy Giuliani, who was mayor of New York City when the 9-11 Attacks killed 3000 Americans, an attack that occurred eight months into George W. Bush's first term and after George W. Bush was repeatedly warned by outgoing Clinton people that Al Qaeda would be the incoming Bush Administration's top national security priority and then after being specifically warned by the CIA in August 2001 that bin Laden was determined to strike targets in the United States.

"Too Much Nuance" Is Now Helping -- And Not Hurting -- The Democrats

One of my favorite quotes from the 2012 Presidential Campaign was when Mitt Romney accused Obama of having a foreign policy that was "too nuanced." I thought Romney's criticism was complete horseshit -- after all, it was the lack of nuance that caused the GOP's clusterfuck in Iraq and ultimately led to the destabilization of the Middle East.

But Romney was right in the sense that Americans no longer have the patience to digest complicated news stories. Usually that helps Republicans, particularly given that the GOP long ago lost any interest in the complicated process of governing. But the rise of Donald Trump has turned all that on its head.

I'll give you an example of what I mean:  On CNN the other day, a Republican was trying to explain how the recent news regarding the Clinton Foundation was scandalous. He spent several minutes trying to do so, but the host for the segment had to interrupt him and asked him to cut to the chase. Remarkably, the anti-Hillary guy had to admit that he just did not have enough information to determine whether there was any corruption involved.  Republicans just don't do "nuance" very well.

I've been watching a lot of Fox News lately -- something I always do when things are going badly for the GOP -- and its commentators are also struggling with this. You hear a lot of words like "scandalous" and "corruption," but they are unable to get into any specifics about the Clinton Foundation "scandal" because what they are trying to push is simply too complex for quick sound bites. The fact that there is no real scandal to begin with is not helpful to the GOP cause either.

The problem of course is that reporters, when deciding whether to cover a Hillary "scandal," will almost always decide to take the easy route and instead cover Donald Trump's latest gaffe.  It's much easier to simply report, for example, that Trump attacked a Gold Star mother or accused Obama of being the "founder" of ISIS than it is to attempt to explain a complicated, non-existent "scandal" involving the Clinton Foundation.

Trump constantly complains about how the American Press is covering his campaign, yet Donald seems to go out of his way to say stupid shit and thus dominate the news cycle.  His strategy appears to be:  (1) say something stupid, (2) get the American Press to focus on the stupid comment, and (3) attack the Press for misinterpreting the stupid comment. The strategy appears to be working extremely well -- after all, Donald is getting a shitload of media coverage. But it will be pretty hard for Trump to get much over 40% of the vote if he keeps acting like a jackass.

Quote of the Week

“Let’s be honest -- Trump does face a hostile news media. And that’s not surprising. We have a candidate who bans news organizations from his events, a candidate who calls the press despicable and disgusting, a candidate who in every single stump speech I’ve ever seen has lashed out at the press. Donald Trump’s problems are not because of media coverage. I’ve talked to people in the past week — people who are very much on the Trump train — advisers outside the campaign, even some advisers inside the campaign who think that it as almost as if Donald Trump is trying to lose."

-- ABC reporter Jonathan Karl.

Here's One I've Never Heard Before

As noted previously on this blog, Republicans have blamed President Obama for pretty much everything.  They've even blamed him for the Blood Moon, Ebola, Hurricane Katrina, and "inappropriate selfies."

But this is new one:

Donald Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson has once again blamed President Obama for something that happened years before he took office. Remember how Pierson blamed Obama for Captain Humayun Khan's death in 2004? Well, on CNN this morning, as she was arguing with anchor Victor Blackwell about Trump’s “founder of ISIS” remark, Pierson actually said, “Remember, we weren’t even in Afghanistan by this time. Barack Obama went into Afghanistan, creating another problem.”

Just for the record, Obama wasn't even in the U.S. Senate at the time we invaded Afghanistan in 2001 -- he was a state senator then.

And speaking of Obama, here is a good op/ed piece on what I believe is the most under-reported political story in decades, namely, the radicalization of the Republican Party during the Obama Years.  I particularly liked these paragraphs:

If your political priorities are the total defeat of a single politician – not the advancement of your own policies through debate or legislation – then you are already in pretty desperate shape. You render it impossible to compromise with your opponents, and you fan the flames of extremism that will burn anyone in the center.

You also look weak and foolish when you lose, surrendering the stage to someone who can vilify his opponents better than you. So don’t look dazed and confused at Donald Trump when he runs your playbook more convincingly than your own team. It’s too late to fret about endorsing his kooky positions – like deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, treating all Muslims as enemies and blowing up the deficit – when they are only logical extensions of your own.

Fucking-A.

This Is Pretty Fucked Up

The NRA decided to aid and abet Donald Trump in his assassination threat against Hillary:

Just hours after Donald Trump sparked yet another controversy with remarks that seemed, to some, to encourage violence against Hillary Clinton, the NRA went public with its biggest gift yet to the Republican nominee - a $3 million ad buy attacking Clinton as a hypocrite.

The spot – which calls Clinton “out of touch” for living under Secret Service protection while promoting gun restrictions – is the biggest single ad buy for Trump this cycle and it brings the NRA’s total spending this cycle to around $6 million.

Wow -- Donald Trump asks his supporters to assassinate Hillary Clinton, gets endless shit for it, and the NRA comes to his aid by attacking Hillary because she receives the same Secret Service protection Trump enjoys as a major party nominee.

I read that the Secret Service paid a visit to the Trump Campaign to discuss Donald's threat against Hillary. Maybe it should pay a visit to the NRA as well.

Trump Will Drop Out Of Race By Labor Day

I just don't see Trump staying in the race much longer. Three things will combine to cause him to drop out:

(1) More Republicans will announce their opposition to him, and as this happens, it will cause a snowball effect because GOP types will feel comfortable piling onto the anti-Trump bandwagon. Trump will not be able to handle that.

(2) Trump will not be able to tolerate his low poll numbers. Donald, more than any other candidate in history, is obsessed with polls. Indeed, he constantly referred to the polls during the primary season, even during debates. His plummeting numbers will simply be too much for him.

(3) He's scared shitless over having to debate Hillary. He hates talking policy. That's why he says stupid shit all the time -- he feels more comfortable defending his silly remarks than he does discussing issues in any detail. He could get away with being vague during the GOP debates, but he won't be able to do that in his debates with Hillary. Trump would rather drop out of the race than debate her.

Bottom line: I don't think Trump ever really had much interest in being president, and he will lose all interest in the job by the time Labor Day rolls around.

This Is Becoming A Pattern

Donald Trump could fuck up a free lunch:

Donald Trump walked back a claim that he saw a video of U.S. officials giving Iran a $400 million payment, a rare retraction from the normally stubborn businessman. Friday’s statement contradicts claims he made earlier in the week that he had seen "secret" video of cash being unloaded off a plane in Iran.

Presidential nominees from the two major parties are typically given access to classified information via intelligence briefings, though his campaign said those briefings hadn’t begun yet. “Iran provided all of that footage, the tape of taking that money off the airplane,” he told a crowd in Florida. “It’s a military tape; it’s a tape that was a perfect angle, nice and steady, nobody getting nervous because they’re gonna be shot because they’re shooting a picture of money pouring off a plane.”

As the President noted yesterday, this transfer of money to Iran is an old story. The GOP's apparent plan was to rehash this old story as a distraction in the event that something catastrophic occurred during the General Election such as, say, a complete and total meltdown by the GOP nominee.

The problem with such a plan, however, is that the GOP nominated a delusional candidate.  What that means in this situation is that the manufactured money transfer story takes second fiddle to the fact that Trump went into great detail discussing a video that does not exist.

Trump has done similar things before.  During his Convention, Trump called into Fox News right at the time the mother of a fallen Benghazi State Department employee was giving an emotional speech about her dead son and thus totally preempted this woman's remarks.  More recently, Trump's meltdown over the Kahn Family completely overwhelmed Hillary Clinton's statement during an interview that she was truthful to the American people about her emails, a statement that rated four pinocchios from the Washington Post.  Trump, however, couldn't be "distracted" by such a story because he was too busy going after a Muslim-American Gold Star Family.

This time, Trump not only walked all over the GOP's attempt to roll out a manufactured story -- he also demonstrated he is delusional and even hinted that he would not be able to keep secrets. And there is still three months to go before the November Election.  If I was a member of Trump's campaign, I would wonder how much more damage Donald could do during that time, not only to himself but also to the Republican brand.

And by the way, what is it with Republicans and non-existent videos?

Quote of the Week

"Trump is Trump. You can pull somebody out of the insane asylum and staff him with the best people in the business, and he's still going to be in the parking lot screaming about the book of Revelations and there's nothing you can do about it. Hillary's the placekicker on the field. She's shanking every kick. And Trump's the guy pleasuring himself in the stands."

-- John Noonan, a former national security aide to Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. [h/t Taegan Goddard]

Looks Like The Folks In Kansas Have Finally Gotten Their Fill Of Radicalized GOP Fuckery

Bloodbath in Kansas:

Gov. Sam Brownback assured the public that the income tax cuts he championed would stimulate the Kansas economy, supply plenty of money for schools and give other states a "pro-growth" policy model to follow. But voters, including many Republicans, appear to have rejected that idea in the face of budget woes and court battles over education funding. On Tuesday, they ousted 11 of the conservative governor's allies in favor of more centrist candidates.

The GOP incumbents who lost in the primary included the Senate's majority leader. Another three conservative House members were trailing Wednesday in still-undecided races. ***  U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp, a tea party favorite who lost his GOP primary race in the 1st Congressional District of western and central Kansas, acknowledged the "wave against conservatives." 

Huelskamp wasn't just your run-of-the-mill Tea-Bagger -- he was the Bagger-In-Chief, the actual leader of the Tea Party Caucus in Congress.

Let's hope Kansas gives other states an anti-Bagger policy model to follow.

Obama's Conciliatory Approach to Republicans

Although I thought Obama's speech last week at the Democratic National Convention was excellent, I must admit I was surprised by it.  I fully expected the President to not only attack Donald Trump, but to also attack Republicans for allowing someone like Trump to seize control of their party.  I thought Obama would say something like, "Look Republicans, you can blame Trump all you want for being a dick, but all the GOP horseshit these past eight year is what actually created this monster."

But Obama did not go there, at least not really.  Instead, he said stuff like this:

"Look, we Democrats have always had plenty of differences with the Republican Party, and there’s nothing wrong with that; it’s precisely this contest of ideas that pushes our country forward. But what we heard in Cleveland last week wasn’t particularly Republican – and it sure wasn’t conservative."

This approach surprised me because, in letting the GOP off the hook for creating the conditions that allowed Trump's rise to power, Obama made it harder for Democrats to argue that the voters should punish Republicans all the way down the ballot for their Donald Debacle.  The President's approach reminds me of the Parable of the Prodigal Son in that Obama is saying to the GOP, "You were lost, but this is a chance to find yourself again."

Well, the President just took that approach one step further:

President Obama declared Donald Trump unfit for office on Tuesday, and called on Republicans to distance themselves from their party's presidential nominee.

"Yes, I think the Republican nominee is unfit to serve as president," Obama said Tuesday at a press conference with the prime minister of Singapore. "I said so last week, and he keeps on proving it." "The notion that he would attack a Gold Star family that has made such extraordinary sacrifices on behalf of our country, the fact that he doesn’t appear to have basic knowledge around critical issues in Europe, in the Middle East, in Asia, means that he's woefully unprepared to do this job."

What Obama is doing is certainly presidential -- he's putting country ahead of politics.  If I was in his shoes, I would be far less forgiving.

UPDATE:  It just occurred to me that Obama may be playing a bit of a political game here.  Perhaps he is concerned that the GOP might be on the verge of giving up on Trump, something that the President really doesn't want even though he is asking Republicans to do exactly that.  Obama might be thinking that even though Republicans really don't like Trump, they hate him (Obama) more than anything else in the world and would never do anything that he asked, even if what Obama was asking would be helpful to the GOP in the long run.

I think it is entirely possible that Obama might also be giving Republicans one more chance to repudiate Trump before he launches an epic attack on the GOP for creating the conditions that allowed Trump to rise in the first place.