The West Is The Best (With Update)

From TPM:

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that the campaign is going up on the air in the final stretch in three states: Georgia, North Dakota, and ... McCain's home state of Arizona.

Plouffe said that yesterday's "rear view mirror" ad attacking McSame would go up in Georgia and North Dakota, and the positive closing spot, which features the endorsements of Warren Buffett and Colin Powell, would go up in Arizona. * * *

Now I don't think for a second that Obama has a chance to win Arizona, but McCain was worried enough about the tightening polls in his home state to start robocalling voters there recently, so why not force him to spend even more money in Arizona.

And speaking of The West, check this out:

In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. * * *

This whole early voting thing could turn out to be McCain's undoing.

UPDATE: From Political Wire:

A new Research 2000 poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain beating out Sen. Barack Obama by just one point in his home state, 48% to 47%.

Among the 17% of the sample that actually voted early, Obama leads McCain, 54% to 42%.

Wow.

"Joe The Plumber" Pursues Record Deal

Geesus:

Move over, Sanjaya, and tell William Hung the news: Joe the Plumber is being pursued for a major record deal and could come out with a country album as early as Inauguration Day.

“Joe” — aka Samuel Wurzelbacher, a Holland, Ohio, pipe-and-toilet man — just signed with a Nashville public relations and management firm to handle interview requests and media appearances, as well as create new career opportunities, including a shift out of the plumbing trade into stage and studio performances.

On Tuesday, Wurzelbacher joined country music artist and producer Aaron Tippin to form a new partnership that includes booking-management firm Bobby Roberts and publicity-management concern The Press Office to field the multiple media offers he’s received over the past few weeks. * * *

What's next, a Joe The Plumber porn movie?

Joe The Plumber: Is He The New Sarah Palin?

Camp McCain might want to consider keeping this guy away from the microphones, just like they are doing with Sarah Palin (from FoxNews):

Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. "Joe the Plumber," on Tuesday twice agreed with a claim from an audience member at a John McCain rally that "a vote for Barack Obama is a vote for the death to Israel."

Wurzelbacher was hitting the campaign trail on behalf of McCain for the first time, joining former Rep. Rob Portman on a GOP bus tour through Ohio.

At a stop in Columbus, he fielded the question on Israel from a self-identified Jewish senior citizen.

The questioner said he was "concerned" with Barack Obama's associations and "It's my belief that a vote for Obama is a vote for the death to Israel."

Wurzelbacher responded: "I do know that."

The questioner then complained about Obama's tax policies and reiterated his Israel comment.

"Well, you know what, I'll actually go ahead and agree with you on that one," Wurzelbacher said. "You know ... no, I agree with ya.'"

Nothing is going right for the McCain Campaign these days.

Just When You Thought It Couldn't Get Any Better ... (With Updates)

Some Republican-On-Republican action:

Over the weekend, sources told CNN that long-brewing tensions between Palin and key aides to McCain were on the rise. Several McCain advisers suggested that they have become increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin "going rogue." A Palin associate, however, said the candidate is simply trying to "bust free" of what she believes was a damaging and mismanaged roll-out. * * *

A second McCain source says she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," this McCain adviser said. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."

I love it that a big battle is starting to break out in the McCain Campaign. They wouldn't be talking this way if they thought McCain had a chance to win. And I find it hilarious that Palin sees herself as the next leader of the party. I have no doubt she believes this, because -- if the right-wing radio program I was listening to last night is any indication -- the extremists in the GOP really do seem to love her.

In fact, it would be great if she became the leader of the Republican Party. I just watched her interview with Heil Hannity, and I'm sorry, but Sarah Palin is a moron. There's just no getting around that. She has the potential to cause a lot more damage to the GOP brand than Bush did. Bush could only cripple the party. Palin just might be able to finish it off.

With regard to the battle going on within the McCain Campaign, this piece from the American Spectator might explain some of it:

Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin's bid for the White House, have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election. "Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012," says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. "The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He's in charge on November 5th." * * *

Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a "diva" and was going off message intentionally. The former and current Romney supporters further are pushing Romney supporters for key Republican jobs, including head of the Republican National Committee.

UPDATE: McCain and Palin apparently disagree on what Criminal Ted Stevens should do. McCain says that Stevens should resign from the Senate. Palin has simply stated that she's confident that Stevens "will do what's right for the people of Alaska."

UPDATE II: Palin is now calling for Sen. Stevens to step down.

Sen. Ted Stevens Found Guilty

From The Washington Post:

Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens has been convicted of lying about free home renovations and other gifts he received from a wealthy oil contractor. The Senate's longest-serving Republican, Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate financial documents.

The verdict throws the upcoming election into disarray. Stevens is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Mark Begich and must now either drop out or continue campaigning as a convicted felon. * * *

With regard to the local Senate race, I just heard something interesting: a friend of mine went into the Obama Campaign office here in town and asked the guy there why they weren't sent to Nevada or some other battleground state. His response was that they are still in place in this blue state in order to help Jeff Merkley get elected to the Senate.

And by the way, this stuff about Palin is pretty interesting:

[T]wo sources, one Palin associate and one McCain adviser, defended the decision to keep her media interaction limited after she was picked, both saying flatly that she was not ready and that the missteps could have been a lot worse.

They insisted that she needed time to be briefed on national and international issues and on McCain's record.

"Her lack of fundamental understanding of some key issues was dramatic," said another McCain source with direct knowledge of the process to prepare Palin after she was picked. The source said it was probably the "hardest" to get her "up to speed than any candidate in history."

I have no doubt that some folks in the McCain Campaign will attempt to blame Palin if McCain loses. I find that hilarious.

We're Back (With Update)

The trip to Wine Country and The Bay Area was great. I hope to post some pictures soon.

It was interesting to not pay too much attention to politics during the last several days. The biggest surprises for me on that front upon my return were (1) Obama has taken a lead in Indiana, (2) North Dakota and Montana are now too close to call, (3) McCain only has a three-point lead in Georgia, and (4) McCain only has a two-point lead in Arizona.

Frustration has really started to grip the Extreme Right. I was listening to radical right-winger Bill Cunningham's show driving over the pass last night. I almost drove off the road a couple times due to laughter. He and the rest of the Kool-Aid Chuggers are really angry at McCain for refusing to re-introduce Rev. Jeremiah Wright back into the campaign. They seriously believe that McCain would win if he simply pursued the Obama-Wright connection.

Cunningham complained that only half the country knows that the Democrats actually control Congress, not the GOP. It was fun hearing the other side bitch about the stupidity of voters for a change, particularly given that the GOP has historically relied on the idiocy of the American people to win elections. Cunningham was really pushing the notion that the "Reid/Pelosi/Obama Troika" will bring ruination to this country.

UPDATE: Former Bush speechwriter David Frum explains why McCain is so far behind right now:

After months and months of wan enthusiasm among Republicans, these last weeks have at last energized the core of the party. But there's a downside: The very same campaign strategy that has belatedly mobilized the Republican core has alienated and offended the great national middle, which was the only place where the 2008 election could have been won. * * *

One wonders if McCain could have secured the GOP nomination without pandering to the extreme elements of his party. But that's all water under the bridge now.

Wine Country Trip: Day 3 -- Damn You, Tina Turner!

JB and I took our time driving from Eugene to Sacramento yesterday, stopping several times to take in the sights. We figured we could easily find a hotel near the Sacramento Airport, but there were no rooms at the inns because Tina Turner played the Arco Arena last night and all the hotels in the area were full. We had to backtrack a few miles to find a place with vacancies.

We will soon be checking out to go pick up Linda and Amanda at the airport and then head over to St. Helena. I'll try to check back in later.

I'm trying not to spend too much times monitoring the campaign while I am on this trip, but it is hard to stay away. I found this Quinnipiac poll to be very interesting:

It's still the economy as Sen. Barack Obama rolls up support among groups who have not supported a Democrat for decades to lead Republican Sen. John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

With 12 days to go, Sen. McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Obama's double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls show:

Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1;

Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent;

Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.

The Ohio poll surprises me, because I thought the race for that state was very close.

Trip To Wine Country: Day 2

I arrived at JZed's house in Springfield, Oregon last night.  From here, JB and I are heading south this morning in JB's car, picking up the wives at Sacramento Airport tomorrow morning, then driving to St. Helena for two nights in Wine Country (where Blade and his girlfriend will be joining us), then catching Neil Young's Bridge School concert in Palo Alto on Saturday evening before driving back Sunday.   

Should be most epic.  The weather will reportedly reach into the low to mid-eighties the whole time we are down there.  Kind of a nice way to say goodbye to summer.  I will try to post on occasion to let you all know how the trip is progressing.

JZed's home here in Springfield is pretty cool.  It is a dome house which he built himself that can withstand 200 mph winds.  Let's hope JZed never has to test that.

This Is Encouraging

From Bloomberg:

* * * In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court.

``On Election Day, I will be managing the largest law firm in the country, albeit for one day,'' said Lichtman, 53, a Fort Lauderdale corporate lawyer and veteran of the five-week recount after the 2000 election when Florida eventually delivered the presidency to George W. Bush.

Obama's lawyers also have pressed allegations that Michigan Republicans planned to use mortgage foreclosure lists to challenge voters. The case was settled today when both parties agreed not to use foreclosure lists to challenge voters. * * *

The article also noted that "the U.S. Supreme Court has handed Ohio Democrats a victory, dissolving a court order obtained by Republicans to force state officials to release the list of 200,000 new voters whose names or addresses don't match government databases."

McCain's Closing Strategy?

We now perhaps know what McCain's close-out strategy will be for the last two weeks of his campaign, and it appears to be wholly dependent on McCain making a major comeback in Pennsylvania (from Political Wire):

CNN reports that top officials of Sen. John McCain's campaign are "making tough decisions" as they now see Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa no longer winnable.

Instead, the campaign's "risky strategy" is counting on Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and a comeback in Pennsylvania.

The McCain campaign responds: "We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling. We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

As I noted in the previous post, Obama wins if he merely holds on to all the states Kerry won in 2004, and also wins Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.

New Mexico and Iowa are clearly out of McCain's reach. But in Colorado, Obama had only a six point lead in an average of four polls taken there on October 16; so I was a bit surprised to hear that McCain is giving up on Colorado and will instead try to win Pennsylvania, which Kerry took in 2004 and where Obama holds a 14-point lead in the latest poll.

The polling, however, has shown a lot of volatility in Pennsylvania -- McCain and Obama were in a virtual dead-heat there just one month ago -- so maybe McCain thinks he has a better shot at moving Pennsylvania voters with his "Obama is a wealth-spreading socialist" line of attack than he does of moving Colorado voters with it. McCain might also be gambling on a Bradley Effect in Pennsylvania.

Anyway, it is an intriguing development. This strategy will require that McCain win both Pennsylvania and Virginia while also keeping North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri in the Republican column. But if McCain somehow wins in Pennsylvania, he could lose Virginia and still win the election if he also takes Nevada.

Neither path to victory will be easy. Winning Pennsylvania (i.e., stealing a Blue State from the Democrats in a year of "change") is the key to McCain's overall strategy in the final stretch now that he has given up in Colorado. I have a feeling that the voters in Pennsylvania will be seeing a lot of negatives ads from Camp McCain over the next couple of weeks, and I have no doubt that many of these ads will feature Rev. Wright.

Here's an ad Obama should use to counter McCain's "Obama is a Socialist" attack:

John McCain. He wants to continue Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for the wealthy, and has called Barack Obama a "socialist" for wanting to discontinue those tax cuts and instead give the middle class a tax break. However, what John McCain won't tell you is that he actually voted against Bush's tax cuts for the rich in 2001 and 2003, stating back then that "so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle class Americans who most need tax relief."

Well, John McCain has changed his mind and now wants to continue those tax cuts for the rich that he previously opposed and now accuses anyone who thinks otherwise of being a socialist. Can this country really afford the unsteady, erratic leadership of John McCain in these turbulent times?

Perhaps Obama is already running this ad and I haven't seen it yet because I live in a Blue State. If he isn't, he should be.

UPDATE: From Talk Left:

CNN's John King reported earlier the McCain campaign had decided to give up on Colorado to focus on Pennsylvania and other big states.

Watching my 10pm local news, McCain is denying it. The regional spokesman for the campaign says McCain will continue to fight for our 9 electoral vote. The station has confirmed that McCain intends to be here Friday.

Checking McCain's campaign schedule at his website tonight, there are no events listed after Wednesday, when he'll be in Ohio with Sarah Palin. Palin will stay in Ohio on Thursday, but no details are given for McCain.

I guess my question now is: Why can't McCain control the message that is coming out of his campaign?

Why Obama Will Win

The polls are tightening, but it doesn't matter because, as I have mentioned before, Obama currently has 264 electoral votes in the bag (i.e., all the Kerry States plus New Mexico and Iowa). What that means, then, is that Obama has to win only one of the following states to win the presidency -- Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, or Virginia -- and he is at least tied with McCain in all of those states.

Although I don't think Obama will win in either Ohio or North Carolina, he has a good shot at winning either Florida or Missouri and a great shot at winning either Colorado or Virginia. That's why I think this election is over.

Plus, Obama also has a shot at winning Nevada's five electoral votes, which wouldn't be enough to put him over the top all by itself, but would be enough to force a tie. And I think a 269-269 electoral vote tie favors Obama because the House of Representatives that is elected this year gets to break that tie (I'm pretty sure that's how it works).

One more thing -- if McCain does by some miracle squeak out an Electoral College win, he'll probably lose the popular vote by a much larger margin that Bush did in 2000, given all the "Red" States that remain in play right now. And even though a lot of the Red States will still go to McCain this year, the margin of victory for the Republican in those states will be much narrower than they were in previous elections.

For example, in 2000, Bush won Texas 59% to 38%. But this year, McCain only leads Obama by 12 percentage points in Texas. That translates into a lot of popular votes that will go into the Democrat column that weren't there in either 2000 or 2004.

The Debate

I thought the format of the debate was great -- these guys want to mix it up and the format gave them that chance. I also thought Bob Schieffer did a much better job moderating than did the moderators in the first three debates. He, for the most part, asked great questions, and the topics were well-structured in that they blended in such a way that would oftentimes allow the discussion from the previous question to continue into the next question.

The best line of the night was McCain's "I'm not President Bush -- if you wanted to run against him, you should have ran in 2004." Obama had a good reply, but McCain needed to make that statement and I think he pulled it off pretty well.

But I thought that McCain sucked for much of the rest of the debate. He had some good answers on education and maybe one or two other topics, but his demeanor was pretty appalling. He did the "Al Gore Sigh" several times, he had this weird look on his face for much of the debate, and he even interrupted Obama's answers a couple of times. Not good.

Obama did his usual steady job. In fact, I think he was sharper than he was in the second debate with his answers. McCain, on the trade question, told Obama that maybe he should learn more about Columbia by going down there. Obama responded by demonstrating that he obviously is very knowledgeable on that issue. McCain tried that tactic in the first debate ("What Senator Obama doesn't understand . . .") and it failed, just like it failed this time. Obama also did a good job responding to the Bill Ayers issue, and was very wise to not go after Palin.

The "Joe the Plumber" gimmick was OK; but Obama spoke right to this Joe character in one of his answers, and I thought that was a very effective way to deal with McCain' gimmick.

Right now, the pundits are all saying that Obama "played it safe" and wasn't on his game, but I thought he did a great job. He went after McCain on the issues when the situation called for it, and defended himself well against McCain's attacks. And once again, he looked and sounded calm and presidential.

McCain, on the other hand, acted like he was on uppers for much of the time, especially when he went on the attack, and he spoke in a weird way. But on some answers, he was very good with his delivery and sounded calm. He seemed like two different people.

With regard to the abortion question, the pundits are also commenting on how McCain mocked women whose health might be threatened late in the pregnancy. I don't know how much trouble he'll get in for that, but I'm sure his base loved it.

No Obama Landslide, But . . . (With Update)

Lots of people are talking about an Obama landslide, thinking that he'll end up winning states like Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, North Dakota, etc., as well as all of the states Kerry won in 2004. Although I'd like to see that happen, I just don't believe it will.

However, "red" states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa now appear to be firmly in Obama's pocket. If he wins those states and then hangs on to every state Kerry won in 2004, then Obama will win the election because he'll get 273 electoral votes and McCain will get 265 (270 electoral votes are need to win). The race will most certainly tighten over the next three weeks; but barring any major gaffe by Obama or some other event, he seems to be on track to win this thing.

I find it amazing that Obama could win the election without taking either Florida or Ohio, but that could very easily happen.

With regard to tonight's debate, I'm certain we'll see McCain raise the Bill Ayers issue, and we'll also see McCain refer to Obama's statement earlier in the year that folks in states like Pennsylvania "cling to their guns and religion." But all Obama has to do is maintain the steadiness he exhibited in the first two debates, and he'll be declared the winner.

UPDATE: CNN just reported that its latest poll in Virginia shows that Obama leads McCain there 53% to 43%:

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls — including our own — now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Adding to McCain's woes is a 733-point drop in the Dow today, which won't really help him much going into tonight's debate.

Obama Takes The Lead In North Dakota

From Political Wire:

Sen. Barack Obama has taken the lead over Sen. John McCain in North Dakota, 45% to 43%, according to a new Forum poll.

"The poll indicates McCain's once-comfortable lead in North Dakota has melted away as Obama is the widely favored choice among voters who consider the economy the most pressing issue."

McCain had a double-digit lead there last month.

By the way, Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize for economics today. That should piss off the Extreme Right to no end.

A Popular GOP Talking Point Bites The Dust

You hear it all of the time from right-wingers: this latest economic crisis is all Bill Clinton's fault.

In fact, a conservative friend of mine regurgitated this talking point to me just the other day. The argument goes something like this: What caused the financial crisis was a government push to make housing more affordable to riskier borrowers (i.e., minorities), and it was the Clinton Administration who pushed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make home ownership more available to those people. Rush Limbaugh spews this crap constantly, which should have been my first clue that it is all horseshit. From McClatchy:

* * * Between 2004 and 2006, when subprime lending was exploding, Fannie and Freddie went from holding a high of 48 percent of the subprime loans that were sold into the secondary market to holding about 24 percent, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance, a specialty publication. One reason is that Fannie and Freddie were subject to tougher standards than many of the unregulated players in the private sector who weakened lending standards, most of whom have gone bankrupt or are now in deep trouble.

During those same explosive three years, private investment banks — not Fannie and Freddie — dominated the mortgage loans that were packaged and sold into the secondary mortgage market. In 2005 and 2006, the private sector securitized almost two thirds of all U.S. mortgages, supplanting Fannie and Freddie, according to a number of specialty publications that track this data. ***

It's worth reading the entire article, especially if you have family or friends who are Rush Limbaugh fans.

Meanwhile, the nutjobs continue to show up at McCain rallies. Here is what Pastor Arnold Conrad said during the invocation at a McCain rally in Iowa on Saturday:

I would also add, Lord, that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god — whether it’s Hindu, Buddha, Allah — that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons. And Lord, I pray that you will guard your own reputation, because they’re going to think that their god is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and election day.

OK, so Pastor Arnold is an idiot, but my question is this: Why the hell is McCain even holding a rally in Iowa? I know it's supposed to be a Red State, but according to a Survey USA poll that came out this weekend, Obama currently enjoys a 13-point lead there.

This Is Extraordinary

My initial impression of this was that McCain should be praised for speaking out against all the hateful things that have been said about Obama lately at the McCain/Palin rallies. But then again, it was McCain who started all of this when he and his campaign decided to accuse Obama of "palling around with terrorists" and implying that "Barack Hussein Obama" is a foreigner or is at least in league with foreigners.

Take a look at this video from outside a McCain rally in Pennsylvania. David Gergen said the other day that "[t]here is this free floating sort of whipping around anger that could really lead to some violence -- I think we're not far from that." It's hard to disagree with Gergen when you watch that video from Pennsylvania.

And the frustration level amongst McCain supporters should only increase given this news:

An Alaska ethics report has concluded that John McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, abused her power as governor when firing a state official, a development that could hinder the Republicans as the race for the White House narrows. * * *

Nothing is going right for the Republican ticket. Although I hope things can remain peaceful during the closing days of this campaign, I have a feeling that we will see some violence at or near a McCain/Palin rally before all this is over.

What A Day For The Dow

Testing the bottom perhaps? Let's hope so.

For Your Eyes Only, Darling

Sarah Palin's legs at a campaign event.







James Bond movie poster.

[Sorry -- slow news day; or maybe not]

You Talkin' To Me?

Quote Of The Week:

"I am surprised that, you know, we've been seeing some pretty over-the-top attacks coming out of the McCain campaign over the last several days, that he wasn't willing to say it to my face. But I guess we've got one last debate. So presumably, if he ends up feeling that he needs to, he will raise it during the debate."

-- Sen. Barack Obama, in an interview with ABC News.

My Advice to Obama: Get Ready For The Inevitable bin Laden Video

I've been impressed with the Obama Campaign's rapid response to the attacks from McCain/Palin. The "turn the page" ad was excellent, and Obama clearly had that Keating Five website ready to go in the event that the Republicans raised Ayers, Rezko, and Wright as campaign issues.

But we've yet to hear from someone who clearly has a stake in this election and obviously does not want to see an Obama victory. That person is -- of course -- Osama bin Laden, and I have no doubt we'll be hearing from him very soon just like we heard from him in the week prior to the 2004 election.

Obama needs to be prepared for this. He should have an ad ready which can be launched immediately after bin Laden issues his inevitable videotaped statement, and the ad should go something like this:

"Here we go again -- Osama bin Laden is once again trying to affect an American presidential election. He did the exact same thing in 2004, and as a result we got four more years of Bush failed policy. In fact, the CIA concluded that bin Laden wanted George Bush to beat John Kerry in that election, and we can see why -- a Bush victory meant that bin Laden would have four more years of U.S. combat forces being tied down in Iraq when our forces should have been going after him and his fellow terrorists in Afghanistan.

"Don't forget -- John McCain said that he wants our country to be in Iraq for 100 years. bin Laden undoubtedly wants the same thing. Osama bin Laden fooled you once into voting for the Republican ticket -- don't be fooled again."

Of course, such an ad may not be necessary if Obama has a 20-point lead in the polls when when bin Laden makes his statement. But we all know this race will tighten up over the next few weeks.

Well, That Was Swift

Looks like the McCain Campaign's attacks on Obama using Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, and Jeremiah Wright might be over before they really got started. From Politico:

After days of attempts to persuade voters that Obama’s ties to ‘60s radical Bill Ayers are a crucial character issue, McCain didn’t mention Ayers’ name during the 90 minutes of Tuesday’s forum. His top aides suggested afterward that, going forward, the candidate wouldn’t focus on the former domestic terrorist nor invoke the name of Obama’s controversial pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. * * *

“As long as the Dow is down 500 points a day, that's going to push a lot of the Rezko and Ayers stuff off the front pages,” acknowledged a Republican National Committee official. * * *

It'll be interesting to see whether Sarah Palin will stop talking about Ayers in her stump speeches. I have a feeling she won't. Her job is to keep the base on board, and the GOP base really seems to love these kind of attacks. It brings out the best in them.

Debate Reaction

McCain did much better than last time, I thought. He did an Al Gore-like change of strategy and actually looked at Obama this time (but the whole "that one" comment when he was referring to Obama didn't sound so nice).

Obama wasn't as sharp as he was in the first debate. He mangled a couple sentences near the end and actually said the opposite of what he wanted to say in one of them. But he still did a good job, seemed relaxed throughout, and came off as likeable and knowledgeable just like he did in the first one.

In a lot of ways, this was a replay of that first debate. Many of the same questions were asked, and they both gave a lot of the same answers that they gave in the first. I know that kind of thing is inevitable in these debates. I guess I'm just happy that they aren't doing weekly town hall events like McCain wanted to do. That would get awfully boring awfully fast.

Debate Predictions

I don't have any, except that I think Tom Brokaw will probably avoid doing or saying anything that might upset John McCain. Brokaw said this during the Democratic Convention:

"Well, look, for Bill Clinton, and for anyone in the Democratic Party for that matter, it's a very tricky case taking on John McCain and trying to rough him up. When John McCain was sitting in a prison in Hanoi, Bill Clinton was writing letters to his ROTC commander and trying to get out of the draft, which he did successfully."

And then there is this:

Mr. Brokaw said he had * * * conducted some shuttle diplomacy in recent weeks between NBC and the McCain campaign. His mission, he said, was to assure the candidate’s aides that — despite some negative on-air commentary by Mr. Olbermann in particular — Mr. McCain could still get a fair shake from NBC News. Mr. Brokaw said he had been told by a senior McCain aide, whom he did not name, that the campaign had been reluctant to accept an NBC representative as one of the moderators of the three presidential debates — until his name was invoked.

“One of the things I was told by this person was that they were so irritated, they said, ‘If it’s an NBC moderator, for any of these debates, we won’t go,’ ” Mr. Brokaw said. “My name came up, and they said, ‘Oh, hell, we have to do it, because it’s going to be Brokaw.’ ”

Author Of Anti-Obama Book Detained In Kenya

LOL:

The American author of a best-selling book attacking Barack Obama is being detained in Kenya because he does not have a work permit, a senior immigration official said Tuesday.

Jerome Corsi, who wrote "The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality," was being held at immigration headquarters in Nairobi after police picked him up from his hotel Tuesday, said Carlos Maluta, a senior immigration official in charge of investigations.

"We still haven't decided what to do with him," Maluta told The Associated Press. A call to a Corsi aide in the U.S. rang unanswered Tuesday.

Maluta said Corsi did not have a temporary work permit needed to conduct business in Kenya. Corsi had been scheduled to launch his book Tuesday in Kenya, where the Democratic U.S. presidential candidate is wildly popular. * * *

I hear that Corsi's next book will be on how Hitler really wasn't such a bad guy after all, and that he's planning a huge tour of Israel to promote it.

Quote Of The Week (With Update)

"It's a dangerous road, but we have no choice. If we keep talking about the economic crisis, we're going to lose."

-- a top McCain strategist explaining why the McCain Campaign has decided to go all negative on Obama.

I have no doubt that this statement will end up in an Obama ad. Why does Camp McCain keep saying stuff like this? If you are going on the attack, just do it, and let the other side argue that you are simply trying to change the subject. Don't announce that fact yourself.

You're a Republican, dammit!! Start acting like one.

And while I'm at it, I guess you can put this one in the McCain "oops" column as well (from Josh Marshall):

Faced with health care plan numbers that didn't add up, McCain's economics advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin has just announced that McCain will make up the difference with big cuts to Medicare. I guess they really are writing off Florida.

A good debate topic for tomorrow night perhaps?

UPDATE: Looks like the McCain Camp might have picked the wrong time to try to change the subject:

Despair about a weakening global economy is sweeping across Wall Street, propelling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 700 points. Investors around the world have been selling off stocks as they come to realize that financial systems in the United States and other countries need more than government bailouts to fix them.

The Dow is in striking distance of its biggest one-day point decline — 778, which the blue chips suffered a week ago when investors feared the bailout package might not pass Congress. * * *

Here We Go (With Updates)

Camp McCain picks Sarah Palin to begin the ultra-negative attacks on Obama:

Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin on Saturday accused Democrat Barack Obama of "palling around with terrorists" because of his association with a former 1960s radical, stepping up the campaign's effort to portray Obama as unacceptable to American voters.

Palin's reference was to Bill Ayers, one of the founders of the group the Weather Underground. Its members took credit for bombings, including nonfatal explosions at the Pentagon and U.S. Capitol, during the tumultuous Vietnam War era four decades ago. Obama, who was a child when the group was active, served on a charity board with Ayers several years ago and has denounced his radical views and activities. * * *

Guilt by association? Are you freaking kidding me? Palin is actually married to a man who -- until it became politically inconvenient -- was a member of a radical, America-hating secessionist group. You couldn't make up this shit if you tried.

In fact, Palin herself continues to maintain ties with these America-haters. Just last March, Gov. Palin "recorded a video welcoming the convention of the secessionist Alaskan Independence Party (AIP), saying 'we have a great promise to be a self-sufficient state, made up of the hardest working, most grateful Americans in our nation.'"

McCain undoubtedly sent Sarah out to do his dirty work because (1) the Obama Camp appears reluctant to criticize Palin directly, opting instead to take the fight to McCain himself, (2) Palin will never have to personally defend her attacks given she will, from now to Election Day, only be taking questions from FoxNews and Right-Wing extremists on talk radio, and (3) nobody in the Corporate Media appears to have any interest in running with the Palin/A.I.P. story.

Perhaps that media reluctance will change now that Palin has been tapped to play the role of McCain's attack dog. I have no doubt that a lot of media folks might take issue with her when she lobs in these salvos from a safe position while refusing to take questions from the mainstream press.

By the way -- just in case you are concerned, the Ayers/Obama connection is basically a non-starter. McCain might have better luck going after Obama for his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. I know -- that story's probably been played out, but at least there was an actual connection between Obama and Wright.

UPDATE: Looks like the Obama Campaign isn't simply going to sit around and wait for the McCain/Rove Attack Machine to fully engage:

Branding his opponent as “erratic in a crisis,” Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is preempting plans by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to portray him as having sinister connections to controversial Chicagoans.

Obama officials call it political jujitsu – turning the attacks back on the attacker.

McCain officials had said early in the weekend that they plan to begin advertising after Tuesday’s debate that will tie Obama to convicted money launderer Tony Rezko and former Weathermen radical William Ayers.

But Obama isn’t waiting to respond. His campaign is going up Monday on national cable stations with a scathing ad saying: “Three quarters of a million jobs lost this year. Our financial system in turmoil. And John McCain? Erratic in a crisis. Out of touch on the economy. No wonder his campaign wants to change the subject.

“Turn the page on the financial crisis by launching dishonorable, dishonest ‘assaults’ against Barack Obama. Struggling families can't turn the page on this economy, and we can't afford another president who is this out of touch.”

OK, a preemptive ad which focuses on McCain's erratic behavior during the bailout crisis is a good idea, but Obama should do one more thing -- he should run a counter-attack ad detailing McCain's ties to Charles Keating and the "Keating Five" Savings and Loan Scandal. McCain once said that his involvement in that scandal "will probably be on my tombstone." Such an ad should prominently feature that quote.

Hell, Obama should have brought up the Keating Five Scandal two weeks ago when this current financial crisis really started heating up.

UPDATE II: Ask and you shall receive. I know it's just a website and not a commercial -- at least not yet -- but I have no doubt that the Corporate Media will be reporting on Monday that Obama has launched a web page about McCain's "Keating Five" Scandal, which means that we'll probably be seeing a lot of segments in the news over the next week explaining exactly what that particular scandal entailed. Nice move by Obama.

From Steve Kelley of The Times-Picayune

McCain Can't Be Happy About This

Conservative Charles Krauthammer wrote this about Obama today:

* * * Like Palin, he's a rookie, but in his 19 months on the national stage he has achieved fluency in areas in which he has no experience. In the foreign policy debate with McCain, as in his July news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Obama held his own -- fluid, familiar and therefore plausibly presidential.

Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. famously said of Franklin Roosevelt that he had a "second-class intellect, but a first-class temperament." Obama has shown that he is a man of limited experience, questionable convictions, deeply troubling associations (Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Tony Rezko) and an alarming lack of self-definition -- do you really know who he is and what he believes? Nonetheless, he's got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.

Needless to say, I hope Krauthammer is right, but anyone out there who thinks Obama will win this in a landslide in living in FantasyLand.

This baby is going to go right down to the wire. McCain had a rough past couple of weeks, but I have no doubt that his campaign will pull its act together and really take the fight to Obama.

And once we start hearing about Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and William Ayres on a daily basis, the polls will start tightening up in a big way, particularly in places like Minnesota and Virginia. That's just the way it works.

Debate Blogging (With Update)

6:15: Palin sounds pretty good and forceful, but she doesn't seem to want to answer any questions. In fact, she just said that she won't necessarily answer the questions that the moderator wants her to answer (a slam on the "East Coast Media Elite," perhaps?).

6:20: Biden did a great job in his rebuttal to Palin's comments on taxation issues. Nice reference to the Bridge to Nowhere -- canned but effective.

6:25: Palin did a good job talking about how Obama voted for Big Oil tax breaks and how she dealt with oil issues in Alaska, but she didn't answer the question and Biden did a good job responding.

6:30: Biden's not as strong as he should be on the mortgage crisis, but there goes Palin changing the subject again. Geesus.

6:34: Biden's response to Palin's global warming skepticism: "If you don't understand what the cause is, it's virtually impossible to come up with a solution."

6:39: Palin probably answered as well as she could on the same-sex couples issue, but Biden trapped her on the issue right at the end of his comments. Pretty good maneuver on his part.

6:43: Biden had great answers on the Iraq question, both with his opening remarks and his reply to Palin's remarks. The wheels are coming off for Sarah a bit here, but foreign policy isn't really her strong suit.

6:52: Biden mocks McCain for his refusal to talk to Spain. Kick-ass. Palin really doesn't have much to say on foreign policy.

7:00: Great response from Biden on how the commanding general in Afghanistan doesn't want a Surge there while Sarah Palin and McCain want a Surge there. But he needs to stop purposefully repeating himself for emphasis. Once or twice with that tactic is enough.

7:06: Palin did a good job going after Biden for his initial support of the Iraq War, but Biden correctly responded by putting the focus back on McCain. Palin was good on her answers here though, unlike a lot of her answers on the other foreign policy questions.

7:11: Palin lays on the folksy shit a bit much for my tastes, but I betcha the base loves it.

7:12: Palin's response on what a VP does started out pretty well, but she just blew off the question regarding Dick Cheney -- especially Cheney's contention that the VP is both executive and legislative -- and she instead decides to start spewing talking points. Biden was strong on this issue, and his attack on Cheney was spot on.

7:22: Biden's comments concerning single parents and his experiences in that regard were excellent. Not much Palin could say in response, except that McCain is a maverick, but Biden came storming back to challenge that.

7:26: Biden brings up Supreme Court justices, which is refreshing because no one is talking about this important issue, but he didn't finish the thought like he should have. A missed opportunity.

7:30: Palin takes a swipe at the "Mainstream Media" -- the Right Wingers in the crowd go wild!!

7:32: Nice close by Biden.

I thought the debate went fine. Biden did a good job, and, as predicted, Palin had no major "deer-in-the-headlights" moment and did not fall on her face. Not sure who won -- I thought Biden was better, but expectations for Palin were so low that I'm certain she'll be declared the winner.

UPDATE: Well, the polls are showing that Biden won. Here's CBS's results:

46% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Joe Biden was the winner. 21% thought Sarah Palin won, 33% thought it was a draw… 98% after the debate saw [Biden] as knowledgeable (79% before the debate).

A CNN poll of debate watchers shows 51% of those polled thought Biden won, and only 36% thought Palin won.

A Good Palin Joke

From Daily Kos:

While suturing a cut on the hand of a 75 year old rancher, who's hand was caught in the gate while working cattle, the doctor struck up a conversation with the old man. Eventually the topic got around to Palin and her bid.

The old rancher said, "Well, ya know, Palin is a Post Turtle.'"

Not being familiar with the term, the doctor asked him what a 'post turtle' was.

The old rancher said, "When you're driving down a country road you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a 'post turtle."

The old rancher saw the puzzled look on the doctor's face so he continued to explain. "You know she didn't get up there by herself, she doesn't belong up there, and she doesn't know what to do while she's up there, and you just wonder what kind of dummy put her up there to begin with."

My Prediction For Tonight's Debate

Palin will end up giving a good enough performance tonight to actually help John McCain stop his slide in the polls somewhat. Folks are expecting a trainwreck from her, but they probably won't get one. A review of the video from her previous debates in Alaska shows her to be a good debater. As long as Ifill doesn't ask an off-the-wall question, Palin should be fine.

I expect to see an OK, surprise-free performance from Biden as well, but Palin will be declared the winner so long as she has no moments akin to what we saw in the Couric interviews.

Wait For It (With Update)

Should be an interesting next few weeks:

John McCain’s fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day.

A flurry of new polls shows Barack Obama gaining in several battleground states – most notably Florida, Pennsylvania and swing states throughout the West. Officials worry early voting, which is under way in important states such as Ohio, is likely to favor Obama in this toxic political climate.

Several state GOP chairmen in interviews urged the McCain campaign to be more aggressive in hitting Obama’s vulnerabilities, such as his past relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other problematic associations from Chicago. * * *

Well, Obama is more than merely gaining in Florida. He's now tied with McCain there -- at least that's what the latest FoxNews poll says -- and is even ahead 49% to 46% in one poll.

I guess my question is this: Why isn't McCain using Rev. Wright, William Ayers, and Tony Rezko in ads right now? It certainly isn't due to any great friendship between the two men. McCain hates Obama.

I guess someone in the campaign decided that running such ads at this time could do more harm to McCain than good. After all, Obama's so-called "problematic associations from Chicago" didn't have much of an impact on the Democratic primaries.

In any event, I have no doubt we'll be hearing all about Wright, Ayers, and Rezko very soon, if not from the McCain Camp itself, then certainly from Swift-Boat groups. The question then becomes whether the Obama Campaign counter-punches by bringing up McCain's "Keating Five" Scandal.

Which raises another question -- why isn't the Obama Campaign bringing up McCain's "Keating Five" Scandal? It seems like it would be an important thing to point out about McCain's past given the financial crisis we currently face.

UPDATE: Well, that didn't take long -- a conservative group has just launched a new anti-Obama ad featuring Rev. Wright, William Ayers, and Tony Rezko all in a single ad. Meanwhile, a new set of CNN polls is showing Obama's lead widening in some important battleground states:

In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain. * * *

Obama's also making gains over McCain in Minnesota, the state in which the Republican convention was held a month ago. Fifty-four percent of those questioned are backing Obama, with 43 percent supporting McCain, R-Arizona. That 11-point lead is much larger than the 2-point advantage Obama had in the last CNN poll taken in Minnesota a month ago.

It's a similar story in Missouri, where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. That's a gain for Obama, who was down 5 points to McCain in CNN's last poll in Missouri, taken three weeks ago. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by 1 point. * * *

The poll also indicates Obama has a 4-point lead over McCain in Nevada, 51- 47 percent. CNN's last survey in Nevada, taken in late August, had McCain up slightly. A new American Research Group poll in Nevada puts McCain ahead by 2 points.

In Virginia, which hasn't voted for the Democrats in a presidential contest since 1964, the new poll suggests Obama has a 9-point lead, 53-44 percent.

Virginia is now a battleground state. Wow.