McCain's Closing Strategy?

We now perhaps know what McCain's close-out strategy will be for the last two weeks of his campaign, and it appears to be wholly dependent on McCain making a major comeback in Pennsylvania (from Political Wire):

CNN reports that top officials of Sen. John McCain's campaign are "making tough decisions" as they now see Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa no longer winnable.

Instead, the campaign's "risky strategy" is counting on Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and a comeback in Pennsylvania.

The McCain campaign responds: "We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling. We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win."

As I noted in the previous post, Obama wins if he merely holds on to all the states Kerry won in 2004, and also wins Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico.

New Mexico and Iowa are clearly out of McCain's reach. But in Colorado, Obama had only a six point lead in an average of four polls taken there on October 16; so I was a bit surprised to hear that McCain is giving up on Colorado and will instead try to win Pennsylvania, which Kerry took in 2004 and where Obama holds a 14-point lead in the latest poll.

The polling, however, has shown a lot of volatility in Pennsylvania -- McCain and Obama were in a virtual dead-heat there just one month ago -- so maybe McCain thinks he has a better shot at moving Pennsylvania voters with his "Obama is a wealth-spreading socialist" line of attack than he does of moving Colorado voters with it. McCain might also be gambling on a Bradley Effect in Pennsylvania.

Anyway, it is an intriguing development. This strategy will require that McCain win both Pennsylvania and Virginia while also keeping North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri in the Republican column. But if McCain somehow wins in Pennsylvania, he could lose Virginia and still win the election if he also takes Nevada.

Neither path to victory will be easy. Winning Pennsylvania (i.e., stealing a Blue State from the Democrats in a year of "change") is the key to McCain's overall strategy in the final stretch now that he has given up in Colorado. I have a feeling that the voters in Pennsylvania will be seeing a lot of negatives ads from Camp McCain over the next couple of weeks, and I have no doubt that many of these ads will feature Rev. Wright.

Here's an ad Obama should use to counter McCain's "Obama is a Socialist" attack:

John McCain. He wants to continue Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for the wealthy, and has called Barack Obama a "socialist" for wanting to discontinue those tax cuts and instead give the middle class a tax break. However, what John McCain won't tell you is that he actually voted against Bush's tax cuts for the rich in 2001 and 2003, stating back then that "so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle class Americans who most need tax relief."

Well, John McCain has changed his mind and now wants to continue those tax cuts for the rich that he previously opposed and now accuses anyone who thinks otherwise of being a socialist. Can this country really afford the unsteady, erratic leadership of John McCain in these turbulent times?

Perhaps Obama is already running this ad and I haven't seen it yet because I live in a Blue State. If he isn't, he should be.

UPDATE: From Talk Left:

CNN's John King reported earlier the McCain campaign had decided to give up on Colorado to focus on Pennsylvania and other big states.

Watching my 10pm local news, McCain is denying it. The regional spokesman for the campaign says McCain will continue to fight for our 9 electoral vote. The station has confirmed that McCain intends to be here Friday.

Checking McCain's campaign schedule at his website tonight, there are no events listed after Wednesday, when he'll be in Ohio with Sarah Palin. Palin will stay in Ohio on Thursday, but no details are given for McCain.

I guess my question now is: Why can't McCain control the message that is coming out of his campaign?