No Obama Landslide, But . . . (With Update)

Lots of people are talking about an Obama landslide, thinking that he'll end up winning states like Virginia, West Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, North Dakota, etc., as well as all of the states Kerry won in 2004. Although I'd like to see that happen, I just don't believe it will.

However, "red" states such as New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa now appear to be firmly in Obama's pocket. If he wins those states and then hangs on to every state Kerry won in 2004, then Obama will win the election because he'll get 273 electoral votes and McCain will get 265 (270 electoral votes are need to win). The race will most certainly tighten over the next three weeks; but barring any major gaffe by Obama or some other event, he seems to be on track to win this thing.

I find it amazing that Obama could win the election without taking either Florida or Ohio, but that could very easily happen.

With regard to tonight's debate, I'm certain we'll see McCain raise the Bill Ayers issue, and we'll also see McCain refer to Obama's statement earlier in the year that folks in states like Pennsylvania "cling to their guns and religion." But all Obama has to do is maintain the steadiness he exhibited in the first two debates, and he'll be declared the winner.

UPDATE: CNN just reported that its latest poll in Virginia shows that Obama leads McCain there 53% to 43%:

"Virginia hasn't gone Democratic in 44 years," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "But a number of polls — including our own — now show Obama up double digits there. And, as the map shows, if Obama holds that lead, it may be enough to put him into the White House. Conversely, McCain really can't afford to lose Virginia's 13 electoral votes. That state is a key part of the Republican electoral coalition."

The GOP ticket has spent much of the week stumping in traditionally red states where Obama seems poised for an unexpectedly strong showing, including Virginia and North Carolina. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released earlier Wednesday showed Obama with a 10 point lead In Virginia.

Adding to McCain's woes is a 733-point drop in the Dow today, which won't really help him much going into tonight's debate.