Really?

From The Hill:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) could be short on votes he needs to force changes to the Senate’s filibuster rules, as nine Democratic senators sit on the fence about the proposed reforms.

In addition, Sen.-elect Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) did not commit during the campaign to reforming the filibuster rules, which brings the total number of undecided Democrats who will vote on the issue next year to 10.

Of the nine sitting Democrats who have declined to commit to voting for the constitutional option — the controversial tactic whereby Reid could change the chamber’s rules by a simple majority vote — three indicated they could be persuaded to follow Reid’s lead.

That means Reid might be only one or two votes short of the 50 he needs to trigger the change, which Republicans call the nuclear option. * * *

The "nuclear option" -- that's funny. The Republicans have intentionally screwed things up to such an extent that it now requires 60 votes in the Senate to get anything done, and they're complaining about a nuclear option?

And what the hell is wrong with the Democrats on this?  Are they worried that things are going to get worse in the Senate? How is that even possible?

The whole thing reminds me of the scene from The Life of Brian where Matthias is about to be stoned to death simply because he uttered the Lord's name, i.e., he told his wife that a piece of halibut "was good enough for Jehovah" (via IMDB):

Matthias:  Look, I don't think it should be a sin, just for saying "Jehovah".
[Everyone gasps]

Jewish Official:  You're only making it worse for yourself!

Matthias:  Making it worse? How can it be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah! Jehovah!

And that is precisely my question: How can the situation in the Senate get any worse? The time has come to reform the filibuster rules.

Quote of the Week (with update)

We know that several hundred died, but there was never an official count done of security contractors dead in Iraq. So when I see this focus on what was essentially a small firefight, I think number one: I’ve covered a lot of firefights, it’s impossible to figure out what happens in them sometimes. And second, I think that the emphasis on Benghazi has been extremely political, partly because Fox was operating as a wing of the Republican Party.

- Author Tom Ricks, talking about Benghazi on Fox News yesterday.

Something tells me that yesterday's appearance on Fox will probably be Tom Ricks' last, but it's great to see someone not only telling the truth about Fox News but actually doing it right in the middle of the lion's den.

UPDATE:  More on the Ricks/Fox dust-up here.  Plus, John McCain is a fucking idiot.

Our Country Needs More Of This

I'm serious -- the more Republicans continue to act like this, the better our chances of finally ridding America of the GOP once and for all:

Republican lawmakers in Michigan, a state which eliminated tax credits for children last year, have proposed a tax credit for unborn foetuses of 12 weeks gestation.

If the measure, outlined in two bills heard by the house tax policy committee on Tuesday, becomes law it would be the first of its kind in the US.

Critics said the proposal was "absurd" and described it as a backdoor way of trying to pass "personhood" legislation which would give rights to an embryo and crack down on abortion.

The Michigan house of representatives this year passed part of a three-bill package that would restrict access to abortion and heavily regulate clinic that performs them. Republican leaders have come under fire for banning a Democrat from speaking after she said the word "vagina" in a debate on an abortion bill earlier this year.

I had held out some hope that the GOP's crushing defeat in the last election would have caused the Republicans to discard far-right extremism and re-adopt the more moderate approaches of Nixon, Reagan, and Bush I. Then I remembered that this is the very same political party that wanted to intentionally bring down the American economy just because a good percentage of its members hate Obama.

I seriously doubt the GOP's defeat twenty days ago did anything to lessen this hatred for the President.  That's why I believe that the extreme elements within the Republican Party will do whatever they can to stop Obama from having a successful second term, even if it means bringing down this country. I'm convinced they'd rather see America fail than see it succeed under an Obama presidency.

So Rush Limbaugh -- do your worst.  Fox News -- please continue with all your bullshittery.  Get the American Taliban all fired up. The sooner Republicans make their kamikazi run on this country, the sooner we can be rid of them.  Let's just hope they don't cause too much damage on their way out.

Oldie But A Goodie

My friend Slic[k] reminded me the other day of some things Tom DeLay and Grover Norquist said eight years ago about the GOP:

DeLay himself drew the line sharply the day after the 2004 elections. "The Republican Party is a permanent majority for the future of this country," DeLay declared. "We're going to be able to lead this country in the direction we've been dreaming of for years."

Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform and a leading figure in both the DeLay and Bush political operations, chose more colorful post-election language to describe the future. "Once the minority of House and Senate are comfortable in their minority status, they will have no problem socializing with the Republicans," he told Richard Leiby of The Post. "Any farmer will tell you that certain animals run around and are unpleasant. But when they've been 'fixed,' then they are happy and sedate. They are contented and cheerful."

Tom -- I'm laughing at your permanent majority. And Grover, I think it is hilarious that you're the one who is currently in the process of being fixed. Have fun with that.

And Happy Thanksgiving, Everyone.

Good . . . Now Go Away

From The Palm Beach Post:

Republican U.S. Rep. Allen West announced this morning that he won’t challenge Democrat Patrick Murphy’s narrow victory in their nationally watched battle for the Palm Beach-Treasure Coast congressional District 18 seat.

“While many questions remain unanswered, today I am announcing that I will take no further action to contest the outcome of this election,” West said in a statement released early this morning to The Palm Beach Post.

Mitt Romney Doubles Down On His 47% Speech

A few weeks after the release of the now-infamous 47% speech -- wherein Gov. Romney called nearly one-half of the country a bunch of freeloading self-ascribed victims -- he issued a statement repudiating those remarks, saying that he was "completely wrong."  Now that the election is over, however, Romney can now stop pretending that he actually gives a shit.

Here is what he had to say recently with regard to "the African-American community, the Hispanic community and young people" and how these groups contributed to his crushing defeat in last week's election (via the New York Times):

"In each case they were very generous in what they gave to those groups. With regards to the young people, for instance, a forgiveness of college loan interest, was a big gift. Free contraceptives were very big with young college-aged women. And then, finally, Obamacare also made a difference for them, because as you know, anybody now 26 years of age and younger was now going to be part of their parents' plan, and that was a big gift to young people. They turned out in large numbers, a larger share in this election even than in 2008."

Look, a lot has been reported with regard to how Republicans have been sore losers in this election. But let me take this opportunity to be a sore winner. Governor Romney, I'm glad you lost, and I am particularly satisfied that you and the rest of the Republican Party were "shellshocked" by a loss that you claim you did not see coming.

You deserve your spot in the dust-bin of American politics. My one hope now is that the rest of your fucking party decides against moderation and instead chooses to re-embrace the policies that will ultimately lead to the death of the GOP.

And speaking of sore losers . . . .

Quote of the Week

President Obama, at today's press conference, said this in defense of Susan Rice:

"If Sen. McCain and Sen. Graham and others want to go after somebody, they should go after me, and I'm happy to have that discussion with them. But for them to go after the U.N. Ambassador, who had nothing to do with Benghazi, and was simply making a presentation based on intelligence that she had received, and to besmirch her reputation, is outrageous.

"We're after an election now. I think it is important to find out what happened in Benghazi. * * * But when they go after the UN Ambassador apparently because they think she's an easy target, then they've got a problem with me."

Fucking-A. It's about time he started talking like this.

More please.

Wow

Fron Reuters (h/t JB):

An Arizona woman, in despair at the re-election of Democratic President Barack Obama, ran down her husband with the family car in suburban Phoenix on Saturday because he failed to vote in the election, police said on Monday.

Holly Solomon, 28, was arrested after running over husband Daniel Solomon following a wild chase that left him pinned underneath the vehicle.

Daniel Solomon, 36, was in critical condition at a local hospital, but is expected to survive, Gilbert police spokesman Sergeant Jesse Sanger said. ***

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

Radical Religious Right Softens Its Stance On Obama

Our American Taliban friends no longer believe that Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ. Here is what Texas Megachurch pastor Robert Jeffress has to say about this change of position:

“I want you to hear me tonight, I am not saying that President Obama is the Antichrist, I am not saying that at all. One reason I know he’s not the Antichrist is the Antichrist is going to have much higher poll numbers when he comes,” said Jeffress.

“President Obama is not the Antichrist. But what I am saying is this: the course he is choosing to lead our nation is paving the way for the future reign of the Antichrist.”

Look, I know it doesn't sound like much movement on their part, but there is a big difference between saying that someone is the Anti-Christ and saying that someone will merely usher in the age of the Anti-Christ. 

It's a major concession and the Radical Religious Right should be praised for making it.

Most Hilarious Post-Election Tweet So Far

For the record, Australia has a Prime Minister, not a president, their Prime Minister is a woman, and she is an atheist who lives with a man she isn't married to.

Huntsman The Next Secretary of State?

Interesting (via the AP):

The favorite to succeed Clinton, U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice, would face a difficult Senate confirmation process after her much-maligned explanations of the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, meaning she could land instead as Obama's national security adviser. That job that doesn't require the Senate's approval. Tom Donilon, who currently holds that position, and Chuck Hagel, a former Republican senator, are among the other contenders.

The chances of another early favorite, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, are hampered by Democrats' fear that Republican Scott Brown, who lost his Massachusetts Senate seat Tuesday, could win Kerry's seat in a race to replace him.

Officials, however, are pointing to Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor, Obama's ambassador to China and Republican presidential candidate, and the State Department's current No. 2, William Burns.

Huntsman is still widely respected by the administration even if he'd hoped to unseat Obama. Choosing Huntsman would allow the president to claim bipartisanship while putting an Asia expert in the job at a time when the U.S. is focusing more attention on the world's most populous continent.

Most Chilling Article I've Read All Year (With Update)

This is some pretty scary stuff (from CBS News):

Mitt Romney's campaign got its first hint something was wrong on the afternoon of Election Day, when state campaign workers on the ground began reporting huge turnout in areas favorable to President Obama: northeastern Ohio, northern Virginia, central Florida and Miami-Dade. Then came the early exit polls that also were favorable to the president.

But it wasn't until the polls closed that concern turned into alarm. They expected North Carolina to be called early. It wasn't. They expected Pennsylvania to be up in the air all night; it went early for the President. After Ohio went for Mr. Obama, it was over, but senior advisers say no one could process it.

"We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory," said one senior adviser. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."

One adviser actually said that Romney "was shellshocked" by his loss last Tuesday, Paul Ryan seemed "genuinely shocked," and Ryan's wife "was shaken and cried softly."

Shellshocked?  Really?  Either this is all a bunch of crap, or our country came one additional poor Obama debate performance away from sending a shitload of idiots to the White House. 

Now I can't blame Romney and his people for feeling some confidence after the first debate, particularly given the crappy month Romney had prior to it.  And I also couldn't blame them for appearing confident on the outside during the closing days of the campaign.  But from the sound of the article, they actually thought they were going to win the election -- and reportedly thought that way right up to the bitter end -- even though the numbers clearly broke for Obama during the campaign's last couple weeks.

The fact that Romney himself couldn't see the writing on the wall is particularly stunning.  A businessman of his alleged caliber would presumably want to get the straight scoop on where he stood with the electorate.  But not this guy apparently, or anybody around him.

Unbelievable.

UPDATE:  From Kevin Drum:

Just in case you haven't read this yet, here's a remarkable statistic: even if Romney had won Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, he still would have lost. This makes it all the weirder that he and his team were so sure they were going to win all the way to the end. After all, it's plausible that if turnout had been slightly different he could have reeled in those three states, which he lost by only two or three points. But which state would have been the fourth? Pennsylvania? He lost it by 5 points. Colorado? 5 points. New Hampshire? 6 points. Iowa? 6 points. Nevada? 7 points. Wisconsin? 7 points. What possible turnout models could they have been cooking up in their back rooms that convinced them any of those states were truly in play?

Quote of the Week

"The billionaire donors I hear are livid. There is some holy hell to pay. Karl Rove has a lot of explaining to do … I don't know how you tell your donors that we spent $390 million and got nothing."

- A Republican operative (via The Huffington Post).

By the way, this is hilarious:

The Daily Show
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Bottom line: The Republicans bought into their own bullshit, and they are suffering today as a result.

I love it.

Interesting Washington Post Article On Presidential Campaign

This is a pretty good read.  I thought this part about the lack of early attack ads against Obama was interesting:

In 2011, something unexpected happened: nothing. The predicted onslaught was largely absent, giving the campaign in Chicago the time and resources to set up the organization a full year before the general election. Without having to respond to negative advertising, the campaign spent its time and money on preparation.

“One of the great mysteries was why they waited so long,” a third senior Obama campaign official said. “We were like the Brits during World War II, staring at the sky waiting for the bombs to fall. They never came.”

And this part about Romney's initial reaction to Benghazi is also intriguing.  I knew that something like this probably happened within the Romney Campaign (these kinds of things are bound to happen when you surround yourself with neo-cons):

By sunrise the next day, it was clear to Romney that they had acted too quickly. The campaign learned that four Americans had been killed in an attack on a U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, including Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens. Even to some Republicans, Romney’s hasty statement looked insensitive.

“We screwed up, guys,” Romney told aides on a conference call that morning, according to multiple people on the call. “This is not good.”  His advisers told him that, if he took back his statement, the neoconservative wing of the party would “take his head off.” He stood by it during an appearance in Florida.

And I liked this part about Biden's debate:

Unlike Obama, Biden had been preparing [for his debate], off and on, for months. Advisers had put together one hundred questions that Biden should expect to get, and during even the smallest windows of free time on Air Force Two, they would quiz the vice president: “So why is the economy better off than it was four years ago?”

“I’m nervous,” Obama told him during a call on the day of the debate, according to advisers. “Is this how you felt when you were getting ready to watch me?”

Hours later, Biden turned in an aggressive defense of the administration’s record. Before he had even left the stage at Centre College in Danville, Ky., he was handed a mobile phone.

It was Obama calling with congratulations.

Joe Half-Rack Signing Off

I'm joking. I'm not riding into the sunset as a political blogger -- not yet (sorry Anonymous -- I hope you're not too depressed right now and that your move to Haiti goes OK).

I think the next few months are going to be some of the more interesting months in our nation's history, politically speaking, so I'm going to stick around as a political blogger for a little while longer.

I'm curious to see how the Republicans respond to what looks to be an Obama Electoral College Landslide. Will they continue to obstruct, or will they decide that cooperation and compromise are preferable to going off the Fiscal Cliff? Will the Akin and Mourdock defeats finally convince the GOP to break away from the American Taliban?  Or will the Republican Party move even further to the right and commit politcal suicide in the process.

Anyway, we'll get at least some answers to these questions in the coming months.  But right now, I am glad this election is over and that Obama won handily.  And I'm also happy that Donald Trump is really pissed off tonight.  I like that.

One Final Point . . . (with updates)

From Steve Benen:

Gallup suspended its daily tracking poll after Hurricane Sandy slammed the East coast, but the pollster published one last set of results yesterday, wrapping up the 2012 campaign season. *** Gallup found that a 52% majority now approve of how Obama is doing his job. The final Washington Post/ABC News poll showed a similar result, with Obama scoring a 51% approval rating, tied for its highest point since the president ordered the strike on Osama bin Laden.

And why does this matter? Because there's no modern precedent for Americans defeating an incumbent president with an approval rating this high. ***

By the way, Nate Silver's final forecast gives Obama a 90.9% chance of winning the Election, and he predicts that Obama will win 313 Electoral Votes. Other forecasting models are predicting a similar outcome.

Now get out and vote -- and then turn your channel to FoxNews because I've been watching it for the past few days and it is freaking hilarious.

UPDATE:  Maybe you Republicans out there can answer me this:  You guys are all up in arms about Voter Fraud, but why is it that every time fraud is revealed, it is always Republicans that are engaging in it?

Clackamas County today identified the temporary elections worker accused of altering ballots as Deanna Swenson, 55, of the Oregon City area.  She was "relieved of duty immediately after the alleged ballot tampering was discovered," Tim Heider, county spokesman, said in a press release.

Swenson, who is registered as a Republican, also worked previous elections, at least back to 2010, said Scot Sideras, county counsel.  Swenson is accused of filling in the names of Republican candidates on ballots where voters did not make a choice. Tampering with ballots is a Class C felony punishable by up to five years in prison and a fine of $125,000. * * *

UPDATE II: Look, I still hear stuff on Fox News and other sources that the polls are "razor tight" (whatever the fuck that means), the polls are all wrong, they oversample Democrats, Romney and Obama are actually tied in Pennsylvania, Romney is actually two points ahead in Ohio, etc. etc. etc.  This stuff doesn't bother me because it's all a bunch of shit.

So what kind of stuff bothers me? Well, the above-quoted ballot-tampering story does, as does this: "A Pennsylvania electronic voting machine has been taken out of service after being captured on video changing a vote for President Obama into one for Mitt Romney, NBC News has confirmed."

Just a glitch?  Perhaps.  But given that the Republicans have openly engaged in extensive efforts to suppress the vote over the past year, I can't help but wonder how far the GOP and its allies would be willing to go along these lines.  We already know how far the above-referenced elections worker from Clackamas County, Oregon was willing to go (hint: it involves going to prison).

UPDATE III:   Voter suppression tactics appear to be working well in Pennsylvania (see here and here). I guess that explains why the Romney Campaign thought Mitt had a chance there.

Final Prediction

Obama will win 294 Electoral Votes and Romney will win 244 Electoral Votes.

As far as the Battleground States are concerned, Obama will win Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.  Two weeks ago, I thought that Romney would win Virginia, but Obama now has the momentum there.

The President will also win Pennsylvania, but that is not a Battleground State.  What I think happened is that the GOP latched onto an outlier poll -- which showed the race tied there -- in the hope of generating some momentum for Mitt in that state after the attempts to pierce Obama's Ohio Firewall failed.  That plan did not work, and Pennsyvania remains solidly in Obama's column.

Romney will win the Battleground States of Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado.  Florida currently looks too close to call -- as does Colorado -- but I have a feeling that both will break for Romney.  If they don't, then it'll be a huge night for Obama and the Democrats obviously; but I'm putting both Florida and Colorado in Romney's column because he seems to have some momentum in each of those states whereas Obama's support appears to be flattening out a bit.  Colorado was the toughest call for me, though -- I had it in Obama's column as recently as last night.

With regard to the Popular Vote, I was pleased by the possibility that Romney might win the Popular Vote and lose the Electoral College -- wouldn't that be sweet revenge for 2000? -- but it now looks like Obama will get slightly over 50% of the vote nationwide.

I do hope that Obama wins decisively in Ohio -- or otherwise wins so solidly in the other battlegrounds that Ohio is not needed for victory - because if the numbers are close in Ohio, expect to see the Republicans pull some shenanigans that might delay results in that state.  Obama and the Democrats are anticipating trouble and have something like 2500 lawyers on the ground in Ohio, but let's hope they won't have to use them.

More Bad Polling News For Romney

Wow:

Three days until Election Day, President Barack Obama maintains his lead in the key battleground state of Ohio and is locked in a close contest with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Florida, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Ohio, Obama holds a six-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, which is unchanged from last month’s poll in the Buckeye State.

Well, to be honest, the Ohio numbers don't surprise me all that much.  That firewall has been holding for Obama over the past few weeks, and the polls are consistently showing the President over 50% in Ohio, a state that even Mitt Romney is admitting is a must-win for him. 

The Florida numbers, however, caught my attention:

[I]n Florida, the president gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while his GOP challenger gets 47 percent. Those numbers are virtually identical to the ones from October, when it was Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent.

I really did think -- until very recently -- that Florida was in the bag for Mitt, and I have no doubt that the Romney Campaign felt the same way.

I still think that Romney will win Florida, but the fact that Mitt's people now have to work their asses off in that state -- instead of putting everything they've got into Ohio -- is an interesting development to say the least.

Horrible Jobs Numbers

Well, horrible for Republicans that is:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade.

These numbers are way above expectations, so when I heard them, I instantly turned my television to Fox and Friends, and everybody on that show looked absolutely stunned by these good numbers.  All these Fox folks could say is that these numbers are still low -- and they really hit the point that the unemployment rate did rise by a measly 0.1 percent, but then they immediately shifted to the superstorm aftermath and how awful that situation is -- and of course to Libya.  Hilarious.

I bet you the GOP this morning is wishing it could censor these new numbers like it did with the CRS Report (via The New York Times):

The Congressional Research Service has withdrawn an economic report that found no correlation between top tax rates and economic growth, a central tenet of conservative economy theory, after Senate Republicans raised concerns about the paper’s findings and wording.

The decision, made in late September against the advice of the agency’s economic team leadership, drew almost no notice at the time. Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, cited the study a week and a half after it was withdrawn in a speech on tax policy at the National Press Club.

But it could actually draw new attention to the report, which questions the premise that lowering the top marginal tax rate stimulates economic growth and job creation. “This has hues of a banana republic,” Mr. Schumer said. “They didn’t like a report, and instead of rebutting it, they had them take it down.”

I think we might be hearing a lot more about this report in the coming days. I'm not surprised that the GOP did this. After all, members of the GOP attacked the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month when it came out with a jobs report that contained numbers they didn't like (which I thought was hilarious given that the jobs report in question really wasn't all that great), and I'm sure they'll try to do the same thing with the new job numbers.

And now Republicans are going after the Congressional Research Service in a similar way because it had the nerve to report on something that everybody already knows, namely, that trickle down economics is horsehit. I'm intrigued by what all this says about the GOP itself, especially in the light of the recent criticism Gov. Chris Christie has received from his fellow Republicans for praising Obama's response to the super-storm.

Quote of the Week

"We have the math, they have the myth."

- Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.

How do we know Messina is right?  Because FoxNews is basing all its poll analysis these days on breaking down the national polling numbers (which remain close) while ignoring the polls from the states in play (which clearly favor Obama). 

I actually heard Karl Rove this morning breaking down the numbers in the national polls to show that Romney voters are more energized than Obama voters.  Rove made no reference to Obama's clear lead in the recent Ohio polls, and instead talked about Ohio only in terms of early voting and absentee ballots.

Nate Silver says it best:  "Mr. Romney has few chances to win unless the state polls are systematically wrong." I think the folks at FoxNews are beginning to feel that way as well.  And that's why Rove and others are pushing the myth.

And speaking of FoxNews, I know a lot of you out there can't stand to watch that channel.  I usually feel the same way, but I watch FoxNews when things are going badly for the Republicans, and that's why I was watching it this morning. 

It's hilarious.  Definitely treat yourself and check it out.