It's the Ohio, Stupid (with update)

For those out there who live and die by every poll (and you know who you are), this one's for you:

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

I guess this poll demonstrates why Republicans hate early voting so much, but I digress.

For those of you who are keeping track, this is the third straight poll showing Obama breaking the 50% barrier in Ohio. CNN had Obama up 51-47 on Tuesday; and last Thursday the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll had Obama leading by six in Ohio, 51-45.

The dreaded Romney Debate Bounce just hasn't materialized in The Buckeye State. The PPP numbers reveal why that is:

We've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.

I said it before and I'll say it again: Mitt Romney's biggest weakness is that he is still Mitt Romney.  The one place where he really needed a debate bounce was Ohio, because it is a must-win state for him.  But as the favorability numbers indicate, Ohioans appear to have scoffed at Mitt's attempt to re-brand himself as a moderate.

UPDATE:  Do the following poll results mean it is now Romney supporters' turn to consider suicide?

Likely voters in the new [Washington Post/ABC] poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.

Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote. Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result.

It's the 2004 Election all over again, folks.