Oregonian Poll: Kulongoski Leads Saxton By Seven Points

Here is some good news:

Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who appears to be benefitting from an angry voter mood toward President Bush and the Republican Party, now holds a lead of seven percentage points over GOP challenger Ron Saxton, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian and KATU.

The new survey shows that Kulongoski, who leads 46 percent to 39 percent over Saxton, is now well positioned to win re-election on Tuesday barring any major new developments or shifts in voter turnout.

Independent pollster Tim Hibbitts, who conducted the Oct. 28-31 survey of 600 likely voters, said he thinks the Democratic surge in races around the country has spilled over into Oregon as well.

"This is going to be a Democratic year," he said. "Saxton has basically run against a headwind that is not helping him."

Meanwhile, three of the most contentious measures on the ballot appear headed for defeat, suggesting a reluctance by voters to make big political, social or fiscal changes in Oregon.

The poll showed voters rejecting proposals to limit state spending, set term limits on lawmakers and require parental notification before a minor could get an abortion.

"We may have an electorate this year that just says 'no,' " said Hibbitts, "The 'no' side clearly has the momentum."