My Favorite Finding From the New ABC Tracker Poll?

That's easy -- it's not the finding that gives HRC a 12-point national lead, but this one: "The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October."

I expect this number will continue to fall for the GOP, particularly if Trump continues to do and say stupid shit.  Needless to say, a low GOP turnout will make it easier for the Democrats to retake the Senate and perhaps give them a real shot at winning back the House.

One of Trump's problems is that he doesn't generate much love for the Republican Party given that he attacks the GOP on a regular basis.  Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996 by a lot, but his candidacy did not hurt the Party. In fact, I think the GOP improved its standing in Congress that year. Trump, however, is both losing his own voters by acting like a dick and further turning off a lot of those same voters by constantly bad-mouthing the Republican Party. He may turn out to be the most destructive political virus in history.

Add to the GOP's problems the fact that Barack Obama has a 57% approval rating, and this has the makings of a wave election. McCain was hurt in 2008 by the fact that his candidacy followed one of the most unpopular Republican Presidents ever. HRC is following a popular two-term Democrat who is actively (and aggressively) campaigning for her.  This is enormously helpful to the Democrats, particularly given that Obama will probably have a 60% approval rating by Election Day.

It's fun to observe how some Republicans are rationalizing the impending political bloodbath. Peggy Noonan published a piece recently about how a "sane" Trump would have won in a landslide:

Sane Donald Trump, just to start, would look normal and happy, not grim and glowering. He would be able to hear and act on good advice. He would explain his positions with clarity and depth, not with the impatient half-grasping of a notion that marks real Donald Trump’s public persona.

Noonan then went on at great length to explain all the wonderful things a "sane" Donald Trump would have been able to achieve, but in doing so profoundly underestimated just how much Trump's insanity made him appealing to a certain type of voter in the first place. A sane Trump might have been lost in all the noise of a primary season that started with seventeen GOP candidates who were all basically saying the same shit. The insane Donald just put a little more oomph into his rhetoric, and that is why he won the nomination.