Bonus Quote of the Week

"What we are about to witness is a popular two-term incumbent president campaigning strongly for his party’s current nominee. Political scientists and pollsters are limited in their predictive capabilities about what that means because it hasn’t happened in American politics in a very long time."

-- Nancy Letourneau at Washington Monthly, commenting on Barack Obama 51% approval rating.

She makes a good point.  The last two-term president we had was George W. Bush, and he was such a catastrophe that he wasn't allowed anywhere near the last two GOP Conventions and won't be present at the one coming up in July.  Before Bush, the last two-term president was Bill Clinton, and although he was popular, Al Gore was afraid to use him in his 2000 campaign because of the PenisGate Scandal.

Ronald Reagan left office with a favorable approval rating, but I don't remember Reagan "campaigning strongly" for George H. W. Bush.  Reagan had also been somewhat hobbled by the Iran-Contra Scandal near the end of his second term.  [In contrast, Obama's presidency has been remarkably scandal-free, so much so that the GOP has been forced to push fake scandals that were never able to get any traction.]  Nixon did not finish his second term.

I predict that the big moment in the Democratic Convention in July will be the long, boisterous standing ovation Obama will receive before he speaks.  It's definitely been a long time since we have seen something like that in American politics.