Some Thoughts On The Recent GOP Turmoil

Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post had this to say yesterday about the current state of  disarray within the ranks of the GOP:

Less than a year after a sweeping electoral triumph, Republicans are on the verge of ceasing to function as a national political party. The most powerful and crippling force at work in the ­once-hierarchical GOP is anger, directed as much at its own leaders as anywhere else.

Tumulty then analyzed how the Republican Party got to this point, citing -- among other things -- changes in campaign finance laws that have "made the parties themselves less powerful, and ideologically driven outside groups more so."  She also noted:

Junior members of Congress no longer have to seek the favor of more senior ones to rise through the ranks. Modern media has given them the power to play to a national audience — as presidential contender and first-term senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) has demonstrated in the Senate.

In July, Cruz went so far as to call Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) a liar on the floor of the Senate. Such a breach of decorum would have been unthinkable in earlier times, but it has burnished Cruz’s image with the conservative base.

Bottom line: We are in fact witnessing the End Times for the GOP as a national party. But one thing that may soften the blow to the country is that John Boehner will probably have no choice but to stay on as Speaker (assuming he can't get Paul Ryan to assume that post). He certainly can't let a full-fledged Tea Bagger take on that position.

And if Boehner does end up staying on as Speaker, his relationship with the Bagger Contingent could not possibly be the same as it was prior to his "retirement."  After he announced his departure, Boehner said this:

"The Bible says, beware of false prophets. And there are people out there spreading, you know, noise about how much can get done. We got groups here in town, members of the House and Senate here in town, who whip people into a frenzy believing they can accomplish things they know — they know! — are never going to happen.”

It's going to be pretty hard for him to un-ring that bell (the Baggers are undoubtedly pissed that he used a Bible quote against them).  Boehner's GOP enemies in Congress made it clear that they were happy to see him go, as did some GOP candidates for president.

Anyway, if Boehner stays on, the dynamic will undoubtedly be different. And maybe that's a good thing.  He certainly won't feel the need to placate the Baggers anymore, and he'll probably be a lot more willing to enlist Democratic help in getting things done.  Of course, that would only result in the Baggers becoming even more unglued, which will initially manifest itself in threats to run primary candidates against any House Republican who does not fully support their extremist agenda, and will ultimately result in a big push on their part to break off from the GOP and form a new party.

Indeed, I think a new Bagger Party is inevitable at this point.  The only issue now is how much damage the lead-up to such a split would cause to the country.  John Boehner just might be in the position to keep the damage to a minimum.