A Few Thoughts on the Government Shutdown (With Updates)

Let me begin by stating that I am really enjoying the opening skirmishes of what history will ultimately call "The Great Republican Civil War," an epic struggle that will end the GOP's run as a major political party. Once that happens, then the United States can begin to rebuild from all the damage the Republicans have caused over the last few decades.

But in the meantime, here is my take on the GOP's threat to shut down the government tomorrow:

Although I am fairly certain that there are enough votes in the House to pass a clean continuing resolution, Boehner will probably not allow that to happen because he is too afraid that Ted Cruz (R-Canada) and the rest of the Baggers will force him out as Speaker if he allowed such a vote (I know that Ted Cruz is not a member of the House, but someone really needs to tell him that). 

So I believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that the government will shut down.  I predict, however, that the shutdown -- if it happens -- will only last a few days.  This is because Boehner, due to intense political pressure, will have no choice but to end it by allowing a straight up-and-down vote on the clean CR.  And that is where the fun will begin because - after the whole shutdown thing is resolved - the Republicans must then move on to their next fake crisis, namely, their threat to bring down the American economy by voting not to raise the Debt Ceiling. 

My question is:  If Boehner and the Baggers allow the government to shut down tomorrow (even if only for a few days), will forcing a fake Debt Ceiling crisis two weeks later simply be too much bullshit for most Americans to take in such a short space of time?  I think it will be.

And that is why I believe there remains a good chance (not a 50/50 chance but still a good one) that a government shutdown will be averted at the last minute. This is because Boehner may yet be able to convince even the more radicalized members of his caucus that they can't both have a government shutdown and a Debt Ceiling default all in the same month. That means the radicals will have to choose one or the other, and I think they just might settle on the Debt Ceiling default as their manufactured crisis of choice.

All of this will probably come down to how badly Boehner wants to keep his speakership.  If he doesn't care about it, then a shutdown will be averted by a straight up-and-down vote on the clean CR.  But if he wants to remain Speaker of the House, then he will allow a shutdown to happen tomorrow.

And what will the Democrats do in the meantime?  Well, if they are smart, they will do absolutely nothing.  There's an old lawyer saying that goes:  If you are winning, then shut the fuck up, especially when the enemy is tearing itself apart.

My advice to the Democrats?  Just sit back and enjoy the spectacle now unfolding in the GOP.  It promises to be a great show.

UPDATE:  This is pretty funny:

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) had choice words for fellow House Republicans who are willing to see the government shut down over their opposition to Obamacare: “Lemmings with suicide vests,” he called them.  "They have to be more than just a lemming. Because jumping to your death is not enough,” he said.

I also read somewhere that one of Rep. Nunes' aides added that to compare these guys to lemmings isn't right because such a comparison "would be unfair to lemmings." 

Needless to say, I can't get enough of this.



UPDATE II: Well, that little battle didn't last long:

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), who just hours ago was castigating his colleagues as "lemmings" for shutting down the government over Obamacare, has now decided he's going to go lemming and vote with Boehner after all.