A Few Thoughts on the Government Shutdown (With Updates)

Let me begin by stating that I am really enjoying the opening skirmishes of what history will ultimately call "The Great Republican Civil War," an epic struggle that will end the GOP's run as a major political party. Once that happens, then the United States can begin to rebuild from all the damage the Republicans have caused over the last few decades.

But in the meantime, here is my take on the GOP's threat to shut down the government tomorrow:

Although I am fairly certain that there are enough votes in the House to pass a clean continuing resolution, Boehner will probably not allow that to happen because he is too afraid that Ted Cruz (R-Canada) and the rest of the Baggers will force him out as Speaker if he allowed such a vote (I know that Ted Cruz is not a member of the House, but someone really needs to tell him that). 

So I believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that the government will shut down.  I predict, however, that the shutdown -- if it happens -- will only last a few days.  This is because Boehner, due to intense political pressure, will have no choice but to end it by allowing a straight up-and-down vote on the clean CR.  And that is where the fun will begin because - after the whole shutdown thing is resolved - the Republicans must then move on to their next fake crisis, namely, their threat to bring down the American economy by voting not to raise the Debt Ceiling. 

My question is:  If Boehner and the Baggers allow the government to shut down tomorrow (even if only for a few days), will forcing a fake Debt Ceiling crisis two weeks later simply be too much bullshit for most Americans to take in such a short space of time?  I think it will be.

And that is why I believe there remains a good chance (not a 50/50 chance but still a good one) that a government shutdown will be averted at the last minute. This is because Boehner may yet be able to convince even the more radicalized members of his caucus that they can't both have a government shutdown and a Debt Ceiling default all in the same month. That means the radicals will have to choose one or the other, and I think they just might settle on the Debt Ceiling default as their manufactured crisis of choice.

All of this will probably come down to how badly Boehner wants to keep his speakership.  If he doesn't care about it, then a shutdown will be averted by a straight up-and-down vote on the clean CR.  But if he wants to remain Speaker of the House, then he will allow a shutdown to happen tomorrow.

And what will the Democrats do in the meantime?  Well, if they are smart, they will do absolutely nothing.  There's an old lawyer saying that goes:  If you are winning, then shut the fuck up, especially when the enemy is tearing itself apart.

My advice to the Democrats?  Just sit back and enjoy the spectacle now unfolding in the GOP.  It promises to be a great show.

UPDATE:  This is pretty funny:

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) had choice words for fellow House Republicans who are willing to see the government shut down over their opposition to Obamacare: “Lemmings with suicide vests,” he called them.  "They have to be more than just a lemming. Because jumping to your death is not enough,” he said.

I also read somewhere that one of Rep. Nunes' aides added that to compare these guys to lemmings isn't right because such a comparison "would be unfair to lemmings." 

Needless to say, I can't get enough of this.



UPDATE II: Well, that little battle didn't last long:

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), who just hours ago was castigating his colleagues as "lemmings" for shutting down the government over Obamacare, has now decided he's going to go lemming and vote with Boehner after all.

Blacktracking

From Real Time With Bill Maher:

The Debate On Whether To Attack Syria Is Essentially Over (With Update)

All that is left now is the actual launching of the missiles (via Politico):

The powerful pro-Israel lobby AIPAC is planning to launch a major lobbying campaign to push wayward lawmakers to back the resolution authorizing U.S. strikes against Syria, sources said Thursday.

Officials say that some 250 Jewish leaders and AIPAC activists will storm the halls on Capitol Hill beginning next week to persuade lawmakers that Congress must adopt the resolution or risk emboldening Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon. They are expected to lobby virtually every member of Congress, arguing that “barbarism” by the Assad regime cannot be tolerated, and that failing to act would “send a message” to Tehran that the U.S. won’t stand up to hostile countries’ efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, according to a source with the group.

Everybody knows that pretty much every Republican in Congress -- excluding perhaps some of the more radicalized members of the Bagger contingent -- would fully support an attack on Syria except for one thing:  President Blackenstein currently occupies the White House and he not only supports strikes against Syria but is actively pushing for them.

What this means is that, prior to today, there would have been no way in hell that a majority of Republicans in Congress would vote to strike Syria because that would be doing what Obama wants and there is no way Republicans would ever support Obama on anything, even on ideas that the GOP had previously supported (i.e., Pay-Go, the Bipartisan Deficit Commission, the Individual Health Care Mandate, Cap and Trade, trying terrorism suspects in federal court, and on and on and on).

But today's AIPAC announcement changes everything.  Prior to today, one of the biggest gripes from Republicans with regard to Obama's foreign policy is the President's intense hatred of Israel.  Even the Idiot Palin has weighed in on this issue.  But now we have a situation where Israel agrees with Obama on an issue, and the only way the GOP can oppose Obama on his desire to attack Syria is if Republicans also oppose Israel on the very same issue.

And that just ain't gonna happen.

UPDATE:  Here are examples of two Republicans who were for striking Syria before they were against our first black president's plan to attack that country:

In another example of the pressures facing Republican congressmen, Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) is backing off an earlier public statement of support for limited military action in Syria. Coffman’s initial support for the plan, which came before President Barack Obama asked for congressional approval, unequivocally supported a limited military strike in retaliation for the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons, but now Coffman says he’s undecided as the vote approaches. ***

Coffman isn’t the only House member to back away from supporting an attack. Also on Thursday, Roll Call reported that Rep. Michael G. Grimm (R-NY) was withdrawing his support from Obama’s plan to attack Syria.

Don't get me wrong -- racism is a really bad thing.  But sometimes it causes incredibly hilarious things to happen, and this is one of them.  Both these guys are going to have to flip-flop again now that Israel supports Obama's plan to attack Syria.  At the very least, the Congressman from New York will have to re-change his position.