Obama will win 294 Electoral Votes and Romney will win 244 Electoral Votes.
As far as the Battleground States are concerned, Obama will win Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Two weeks ago, I thought that Romney would win Virginia, but Obama now has the momentum there.
The President will also win Pennsylvania, but that is not a Battleground State. What I think happened is that the GOP latched onto an outlier poll -- which showed the race tied there -- in the hope of generating some momentum for Mitt in that state after the attempts to pierce Obama's Ohio Firewall failed. That plan did not work, and Pennsyvania remains solidly in Obama's column.
Romney will win the Battleground States of Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado. Florida currently looks too close to call -- as does Colorado -- but I have a feeling that both will break for Romney. If they don't, then it'll be a huge night for Obama and the Democrats obviously; but I'm putting both Florida and Colorado in Romney's column because he seems to have some momentum in each of those states whereas Obama's support appears to be flattening out a bit. Colorado was the toughest call for me, though -- I had it in Obama's column as recently as last night.
With regard to the Popular Vote, I was pleased by the possibility that Romney might win the Popular Vote and lose the Electoral College -- wouldn't that be sweet revenge for 2000? -- but it now looks like Obama will get slightly over 50% of the vote nationwide.
I do hope that Obama wins decisively in Ohio -- or otherwise wins so solidly in the other battlegrounds that Ohio is not needed for victory - because if the numbers are close in Ohio, expect to see the Republicans pull some shenanigans that might delay results in that state. Obama and the Democrats are anticipating trouble and have something like 2500 lawyers on the ground in Ohio, but let's hope they won't have to use them.
8 comments:
Don't let it be said that you're not willing to commit to what has been your position all along. I am not as confident. Never fail to underestimate people's willingness to shoot themselves in the foot and vote against their own interests because of a fringe issue like abortion or gay marriage.
Yeah, that's true, but I'm pretty confident that Obama will win. Romney just doesn't have many paths to victory and Obama has momentum on his side now.
In fact, even if Romney wins Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Iowa, Obama still wins 271 electoral votes because that means he wins in Ohio and Nevada (assuming also that he hangs on to "traditional" Dem states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, which he will do).
My final prediction... You'd better get a couple of cry towels stocked up, Joe Half-Assed. Yer gonna need 'em.
I'm predicting Obama will take an early lead tomorrow...
Until all the Republicans get off work!
Hey troll, be sure and come back tomorrow whether to gloat or apologize. We'd miss you otherwise.
I don't think we'll hear from him tomorrow. He'll be too busy packing for his move to Haiti.
Where you at troll? Let's hear it?
Nice work Harold. Not even close. Romney didn't win a single swing state unless you're calling North Carolina a swing state.
Well, I got Colorado and (presumably) Florida wrong, but I've never been happier to be wrong about something. A great night for America. Can't wait to see how the GOP responds to this loss over the next few months.
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