Obama's Ohio Firewall is Holding

More bad news for Romney:

Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll.

Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night.  * * *

The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.

But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%. * * *

Part of this poll was conducted before Obama crushed Romney in the foreign policy debate, and all of it was conducted before the Mourdock/Romney "God Likes Rape" Scandal started gaining steam. But these results remain consistent with the Ohio polling numbers that have come out over the last couple of weeks. Needless to say, Romney must win Ohio to have any real chance at winning the presidency.

By the way, the latest Mellman poll from Florida shows Obama and Romney tied at 47% there with Obama leading in the early voting. I was under the impression that Romney had Florida wrapped up, but I guess not. Mellman also shows that Obama has a one-point lead (46% to 45%) in Virginia, and even the new Newsmax/Zogby Poll has Obama holding a three-point lead amongst Virginia's likely voters.  And with regard to Nevada, both PPP and Rasmussen show that Obama has hit the coveted 50% mark in that state.

In other words, the recent talk from Camp Romney that Mitt has this election all sewn up is simply a bunch of horseshit.  The election is close, but any momentum Romney received from the first debate has obviously evaporated.

This explains why one of the Governor's "closest advisers" felt compelled to say the other day that Romney will win "305 electoral votes” on November 6th.  Only an idiot would make such a pronouncement if he actually thought it was true.  That was a statement issued by a campaign that knows it is in trouble.