Will the GOP Base Stay At Home in November? (With Update)

What are the three most important things for the Republicans in 2012? That's easy: turnout, turnout, and turnout -- and they're coming up short on all three:

Underneath tonight’s big win for Mitt Romney in the Florida Republican primary, is a statistic that might suggest enthusiasm is flagging among GOP voters in this large and crucial swing state: turnout was actually down significantly from 2008.

In the 2008 Republican primary in Florida, in which John McCain beat Romney by a margin of 36%-31%, a total of nearly 1.95 million votes were cast.

But in tonight’s primary, turnout was actually much lower. At time of writing, with 98% of precincts reporting, the total turnout is only about 1.65 million — a drop-off of 15% in terms of the raw number of voters. * * *

I think it is interesting that South Carolina, which gave Newt a big win, actually had pretty good turnout (i.e., the GOP base showed up at the polls) whereas Florida, a state Mitt won handily, had a low turnout, as did New Hampshire and Iowa.

Republicans just aren't all that excited about Romney, and the numbers are reflecting this lack of enthusiasm. But I think there is something else going on here, namely, I don't believe there is enough hatred for Obama right now. Sure, members of Radical Right hate him (or should I say, hate the Fantasy Version of him), but that's about it.

And that's a problem for Republicans. They don't hate Obama enough. They need to work on that if they want their people to show up at the polls in November, because Romney sure isn't going to bring them in.

UPDATE: Even the Idiot Limbaugh understands this. Here's what he said this morning about Romney's "I'm not concerned about the very poor” comment:

“Everybody knows what he's trying to say but he didn't say it and he makes himself a target with this stuff. He comes across as the prototypical rich Republican. And it's gonna make it harder and harder and harder and harder to go after Obama because this turns around on him. You know, all these Wizards of Smart in the Republican establishment say, ‘We can't have Newt out there! Why, Newt's gonna be the topic. We need Obama to be the topic. We need Obama to be the guy campaign's about. If Newt's out there, it's only gonna be about Newt.’ Well, what evidence is there that it's not gonna be about Romney with these kinds of statements?”