My Final Predictions

I'm certainly enjoying all of the talk that Obama will win by an electoral landslide tomorrow. A couple of my friends think that Obama will get around 350 electoral votes, and I heard a guy on TV over the weekend say that Obama has a real shot at getting close to 400.

Although I hope these guys are right, I'm just not seeing it and I am definitely not expecting an early night on Tuesday. Presidential races usually tighten up near the end, and this one will be no different. Forget about the polls showing a double-digit lead for Obama nationally. There still remains a lot of undecided voters out there, and I'm pretty sure that those undecideds who actually vote will break in a big way for McCain.

Now I'm not saying that Obama is going to lose -- I'd obviously rather be in Obama's shoes right now than in McCain's -- but it will not be a huge blowout. States like North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri will almost certainly go for McCain, and I think Florida will too, even though Obama currently leads by a slim margin in Florida and the final tally there will definitely be close.

Slic[k] thinks Florida is in the bag based on these early voting numbers. The early vote does look good for Obama, but I've analyzed the situation very carefully -- taking into consideration all of the recent polling -- and I don't think he'll win there.

Why do I think that way? Because it's f**king Florida! The polls need to have Obama ahead by at least six points in that state before he has a chance at winning it. I hope I'm wrong on this, but I won't be.

But I am starting to believe that Obama just might win Ohio, despite a recent NBC/Mason-Dixon poll which shows McCain taking a slight lead there. And Pennsylvania -- a state that McCain really needs to steal away from the blue column -- is looking pretty good for Obama right now, so good in fact that the Obama Camp decided that it didn't need to send Barack there in the final days of this election.

The Pennsylvania numbers, however, are definitely tightening. The most recent Survey USA poll shows Obama's lead has been cut down to seven, and the daily Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll now shows a six-point lead for Obama (maybe that's why Biden will be in Pennsylvania today). But Obama still polls over 50% in both Survey USA and Muhlenberg, and is even up 52%-46% in the most recent FoxNews/Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania. If McCain does not win Pennsylvania, then this thing is over.

But the real reason I think Obama will win is because Dick Cheney endorsed McCain over the weekend. Talk about the kiss of death. How the hell did the GOP let something like that happen? Cheney shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near a microphone during these last two weeks, let alone be allowed to publicly endorse McCain. Obama is having a field day with this endorsement.

My electoral vote prediction: Obama -- 317 / McCain -- 221. With regard to the popular vote, Obama will get 51.5% and McCain will get 47%. The surprises for the night will be an Obama win in North Dakota, an Obama win in Montana (where both Bob Barr and Ron Paul are on the ballot), and a very close race in McCain's home state of Arizona.