Prediction for Virginia Governor's Race

It'll be close all evening in tonight's race for governor in Virginia -- and I know the polls show the Democrat currently ahead by a few points -- but I predict Republican Ed Gillespie will pull away near the end and squeak out a win, beating Ralph Northam by a little over one percentage point.

And I am not posting this merely to complain about all of the recent Democratic political malpractice. Low turnout will hurt the Dems just like it always does in these off-year elections, but -- as anyone who followed last year's General Election knows -- additional factors are at work here. Although national polling was solid in 2016, state polls underestimate the white racist turnout, which caused the numbers to be off by a few points in some of the blue and purple states.

I think that same factor will apply in the Virginia election, and hatred for Trump isn't enough to overcome this. The average person doesn't follow the disastrous Trump presidency like some of us do, at least not yet.

Add to all this the fact that no poll in Virginia has ever gotten a governor's race right, and it combines for a GOP victory tonight. State polls have always underestimated the GOP candidate's performance in Virginia, and those previous gubernatorial elections were in "normal" years when white racist voters weren't so motivated.

On the bright side, I agree with my friend Slic[k] that if the Democrats lose tonight, the defeat will finally light a fire under the party. If the 2016 loss knocked the Dems unconscious, then their loss today in Virginia will be the smelling salts because the party has no business losing a statewide election in a blue or purple state when a GOP president with historically low poll numbers is in office. 

The 2018 mid-term elections will therefore be different. A bigger turnout in 2018 -- plus a greater sense of Trump fatigue (propelled by an accelerating KremlinGate Scandal) -- will win the day for Dems next year.

UPDATE: Or not.